NEWARK, N.J. — Chris Tanev put it best.
“Obviously without him, it’s not even close,” said Tanev. “First two (periods) we were god awful. Thankfully he made a key number of saves that allowed us to keep it 1-0.”
Tanev was, of course, referring to the man of the hour — the man of the year? — for the Toronto Maple Leafs, the only reason they had an opportunity to come back and steal a win in overtime on Tuesday night. That man was Anthony Stolarz, who, after stopping 38 of 39 shots in the 2-1 victory over the New Jersey Devils, now ranks second in the NHL with a .928 save percentage.
“Our goalie kept us in it,” Leafs coach Craig Berube said.
In some ways, it was an outlier game. The Leafs were unusually flat for most of the night. They had one first-period shot, total, and 16 overall for the game. This team hasn’t generated so few shots in a game since Jan. 2017 — also in New Jersey, oddly enough, and also a win.
It was their first win in 11 tries all season scoring two or fewer goals.
GO DEEPER
Maple Leafs report cards: Anthony Stolarz, PK rescue dreadful team effort for overtime win
In some ways, though, the game was par for the course, with goaltending — great goaltending — masking many issues simmering just below the surface.
Overall, the Leafs boast the third-best save percentage in the NHL this season (.911) and second-best save percentage at five-on-five (.937). Since the first Monday of November, they’ve been even better than that: No. 1 in the league at .947.
The collective save percentage from Stolarz and Joseph Woll in that stretch is .925 overall and .948 at five-on-five. (The NHL average save percentage this season is .901.)
The Leafs skaters, though, are not controlling play like an elite team should. During that 15-game stretch, which includes 11 wins, the Leafs rank 29th in the NHL with an expected goals percentage of just under 45 percent.
The only teams faring worse are league bottom feeders: Chicago, San Jose and Anaheim. Not great company for a team with championship aspirations.
The Leafs won only 34 percent of expected goals against the Devils.
Auston Matthews scored the game winner in overtime against New Jersey. (Elsa / Getty Images)
As Berube and Tanev both noted, the team performed better — a lot better — when they were short-handed. Auston Matthews, who finished the game off with the OT winner, had some of his and the team’s best looks all night while killing penalties — better than anything at five-on-five or on the power play.
Neither of the Leafs’ two goals was scored at five-on-five, for that matter. Pontus Holmberg got one on the penalty kill and Matthews nabbed the other at three-on-three.
This team is tied for last with Chicago in expected goals generated per 60 minutes at five-on-five since Nov. 4. They’ve scored 20 actual five-on-five goals, one fewer than Chicago in the same number of games — also last in the league.
It’s hard to try to win 2-1 every night.
This is the ongoing conundrum of Berube’s approach for the Leafs.
Part of the problem, clearly, is the lack of any help from the bottom two lines, either in driving play or scoring. Half the bottom-six forwards who suited up on Tuesday night still haven’t scored this season: Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and Connor Dewar.
Holmberg has an empty-netter as well as the short-handed goal in Jersey. The others — Steven Lorentz and Fraser Minten — have done about as well as the Leafs could reasonably hope.
“I don’t think it’s from a lack of opportunities,” Berube said. “They’ve done a good job of hounding in the offensive zone and being heavy down low and doing those things and getting pucks to the net and trying to score greasy goals around the net. That’s how they’re gonna score. And they’re doing a good job of getting to the net, too.”
The Leafs coach wants two at the net at all times to pounce on opportunities, like when defenders are firing pucks from deep and loose change emerges.
“It’s a simple brand of hockey that they need to play,” he said. “It’s not all about scoring with those guys either. Their job is to check and be physical and do all these other things too, and they’re doing a good job of it. But we do need guys to contribute a little bit in the bottom six.”
It’s going to be hard for this team to thrive with two lines that don’t score, that can’t score. And contrary to Berube’s assessment, it’s hard to make the case that any of the varying bottom-six combinations have been successful as momentum-shifters, the kind that leave an impression with their energy and physicality.
The Leafs are being outchanced 24-8 when Reaves and Dewar are on the ice together this season.
Injuries are certainly part of all this. But Domi and Max Pacioretty are both back now and the Leafs need them to be secondary difference-makers, Domi especially. He was fifth in the NHL in five-on-five assists last season, but has only six assists, total, through his first 20 games.
Domi played some of his best hockey on Matthews’ wing last season, a move Berube might want to get another look at in hopes of spurring something more from a player earning $3.75 million on the cap this season (and three more after that).
Meanwhile, the ongoing 3C question remains outstanding.
The Leafs will need more from Domi, who returned to the lineup against the Devils. (Elsa / Getty Images)
Where else can the Leafs turn to for more? It’s unclear when Bobby McMann will be back. He hasn’t been skating with the team since his injury, which suggests he isn’t particularly close. Calle Järnkrok won’t be back anytime soon either, not for months.
And it’s looking like Berube is ready to move on from Nick Robertson.
That means this is the lineup for now, more or less, which also doesn’t include the still-injured Jake McCabe, a consequential loss on a back end that isn’t moving pucks quite as effectively of late.
What would help is Matthews inching close to full strength (his underlying numbers post-injury are far from Matthews-like) and the power play rediscovering some cohesion. It looks out of sync once again with Matthews back in the mix. The Devils penalty kill had more quality chances than the Leafs power play on Tuesday night.
Stolarz has been a revelation and deserves (along with goalie coach Curtis Sanford) all kinds of credit for his start.
“It’s tough to say,” Matthews said when asked if he expected this kind of performance from Stolarz. “He hasn’t really quite found a starting job (before this), I would say. He’s a big boy and he takes up a lot of the net. I think it was pretty evident early on in training camp, before the season in the practice, he’s a pretty hard guy to score on, just with how much net he takes up. But I didn’t realize just how athletic he is.
“Nothing really seems to get to him,” Matthews added of Stolarz’s mentality.
Ultimately though, the Leafs can’t count on goaltending of quite this calibre holding up all season. It remains to be seen how Stolarz and Woll will acquit themselves (and stay healthy) with this kind of workload over 82 games.
This kind of play, from the team in front of them, won’t be sustainable in a division that’s suddenly getting stronger.
“It’s one of those games,” Berube said of the latest win. “I’m not really gonna read into it too much. I’m not gonna talk about it too much. Our goalie was excellent and we found a way to get two points. That’s all that matters.”
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and StatHead
(Top photo of Anthony Stolarz: Elsa / Getty Images)
