Given the Champions League has a new format for 2024-25, a 36-team league stage rather than group tables, The Athletic has designed a table offering projections — powered by Opta data — to determine which teams have the best chances of progressing.
Ahead of the sixth matchweek, which began yesterday, Manchester City and Juventus were both expected to attain 13 points, with their chances of elimination rated at three per cent and five per cent respectively.
City are given an 82 per cent probability of reaching the knockout playoffs, Juventus 86 per cent, with City given just a 15 per cent chance of making the top eight and qualifying automatically for the last 16 (Juventus nine per cent).
In terms of winning the whole thing? Juventus have a two per cent chance, City eight per cent. Bear in mind, those likelihoods will almost certainly have shifted after Tuesday’s matches, but hopefully it gives you a decent picture. Read more below.
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Champions League projections 2024-25: Each team’s probability of qualifying for knockouts
