ST. LOUIS — While addressing the media for the first time in 2025, St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak wasted no time stating the obvious.
“Historically when we get to this time in the calendar, we usually have accomplished a lot in our offseason,” Mozeliak said Saturday in his opening statement during the Cardinals’ annual Winter Warm-Up weekend. “Obviously this offseason has been very different from that. From a player acquisition standpoint, it’s been very slow.”
It hasn’t just been slow in St. Louis. The Cardinals are one of six teams in baseball who have not spent one dollar in the major-league free-agent market this winter. Their attempt to trade Nolan Arenado has been stalled since mid-December. Mozeliak said these two things are very much related. There are additions he’d like to make, namely some bullpen help and potentially a right-handed bat. But he won’t be able to move forward until he’s able to trade Arenado — if he remains able to at all.
During a 30-minute press conference from Busch Stadium, Mozeliak spoke at length about what he described as the “elephant in the room”—how his attempts to trade Arenado have impacted the Cardinals’ offseason. Mozeliak remains hopeful he can trade his third baseman, but nothing is guaranteed.
“I think (a trade) is still a flip of a coin,” Mozeliak said. “But I know it’s a top priority for the organization and myself, so I’ll be laser-focused on it until it’s not.”
Here is where things stand, and why the team’s standstill with Arenado has shaped the rest of their offseason plans.
Why haven’t the Cardinals been able to trade Arenado?
The Cardinals believed they had a deal to send Arenado to the Houston Astros in mid-December, but that trade fell through when Arenado blocked it via his no-trade clause. Since then, there has been no substantial movement.
“I would imagine the free-agent market is what’s slowing this down,” Mozeliak said.
More like one free agent in particular. According to multiple league sources, the Cardinals will continue having difficulty moving Arenado as long as Alex Bregman remains on the open market. Bregman, who is believed to be seeking at least a six-year deal worth around $200 million, has been in discussions with multiple teams. That includes the Boston Red Sox, one of the select teams for which Arenado would waive his no-trade clause. The problem? Bregman appears to be in no rush to sign. And Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, has no problem waiting teams out until after spring training begins.
This has obviously complicated things for the Cardinals, who consider themselves gridlocked with Arenado until Bregman signs.
John Mozeliak says trading Nolan Arenado remains “Priority 1, 2 and 3” but acknowledges the team remains in a holding pattern due to the FA market. He would like to add to the bullpen/maybe a RH-bat, but won’t before they have clarity on Arenado’s future.
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Mozeliak does not have a timetable for trading Arenado. Both parties are prepared for Arenado to report to spring training if he is not moved by the position player report deadline of Feb. 17, though the two sides have not spoken since the Astros trade fell through.
“There’s no (deadline) and nor do I think we have to have one,” Mozeliak said. “It is something that I think, in time, he and I will have to talk through, if the reality is he’s going to have to join us in camp. For now, I’d like to say it’s business as usual, but it’s not been business as usual. This has been very different. But we’ll continue to find a place that he’s happy with.”
What if the Cardinals can’t trade Arenado?
Though the Cardinals are resetting ahead of the 2025 season, Mozeliak still wants to field a competitive club and had plans to add to his roster. Due to financial constraints — the reason St. Louis first explored a trade of Arenado in the first place — he hasn’t been able to.
“This has slowed and affected how we were going to try to round out this roster,” Mozeliak acknowledged. “When we focus on the roster itself, obviously the theme is going to be about creating opportunity and giving that runway, that chance, to really see what we have.
“We like our starting pitching. We would like to do some things in our bullpen if we can before we get to camp, or maybe more importantly, to Opening Day.”
If the Cardinals are unable to find a suitable trade partner, Mozeliak will likely have to turn to other avenues to keep payroll down. However, the situation is not as dire as earlier in the offseason, when keeping Arenado would have almost certainly meant the Cardinals trading from their starting pitching surplus to meet a lower payroll threshold.
“(Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.) is giving me a little bit of flexibility because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now,” Mozeliak said. “He’s been very understanding about what that might look like.”
“I don’t love that idea (of trading pitchers),” Mozeliak said. “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start tearing away from that. Thinking about moving a position player to try to achieve some financial goals would be something we could consider as well, but really don’t want to. The hope is that we can achieve goal No. 1 and then react from there.”
Mozeliak also said he would not have to move another big contract if he is unable to move Arenado’s.
“I don’t think so,” he said. “I don’t think it’s a must. Would it be helpful? Yes, but again, I don’t want to tear this apart for the sake of just trying to get to a number.”
Mozeliak also does not want to part from his pitching staff, which he considers to be a strength of his roster. He likes his veteran rotation, which consists of Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. He also likes the promise of up-and-coming Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy.
There is internal frustration about the nixed Astros deal, in which Houston was willing to eat close to $60 million of the remaining $74 million on Arenado’s contract. Mozeliak touched on that deal — though he did not mention it specifically.
“We had an opportunity to perhaps do something, and from a financial standpoint, I do think it would have been very helpful for us,” he said. “But here we are, so I’m going to try to find a mirror image of that type of deal if possible, but I’m not saying that’s going to happen.”
Payroll concerns aside, Arenado returning to St. Louis would create a logjam in the Cardinals’ plans to guarantee consistent playing time to their younger players —namely Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese and Alec Burleson.
“It would definitely affect some of the projected at-bats that we were anticipating for some of those younger players,” Mozeliak said. “That’s not to say we can’t achieve those, because there is the designated hitter and other ways to accomplish it, but clearly it would change how we were thinking about our actual infield.
“But when a player has a no-trade (clause), they have a lot of say in this.”
What can the Cardinals do in the meantime?
The short version (and one that will surely not be popular with fans): Wait and see.
“Strategically, this has been very different,” Mozeliak said. “It’s the first time in my career that we’re sitting up here in the middle of January and literally have done nothing for the roster at this point.
For now, St. Louis remains at the mercy of the free-agent market and Arenado’s no-trade clause. While he has not commented publicly on his trade speculation, it is obvious Arenado wants to play for a team that profiles as a legitimate contender. If he can’t find a suitable fit, his most likely course of action would be to stay with the Cardinals and hope for better luck ahead of the trade deadline.
Multiple teams have called and inquired about Arenado since the Astros deal fell through, but none of them were teams Arenado was willing to move to. An Arenado trade was always going to be complicated given the factors involved: a full no-trade clause, a significant contract that the Cardinals are unwilling to eat, and a rather small list of approved teams are not exactly easy things to navigate. But it has been Mozeliak’s most pressing task since October. Four months later, Arenado is still here.
“It’s a linchpin,” Mozeliak said. “But there’s nothing I can do to move it faster.”
(Photo of Nolan Arenado: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)
