Three early surprises for Edmonton Oilers in Golden Knights series

The first two games of the series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights were an absolute pleasure for fans of the orange, white and blue. Road wins don’t come easy, and wins for visiting teams in Vegas are rare.

The “feel-good” for Oilers fans ended on Saturday morning, with word that goaltender Calvin Pickard wouldn’t start Game 3. Regular-season starter (and last year’s playoff workhorse) Stuart Skinner had some tough moments against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, and was waiting for a chance at redemption.

It came on Saturday.

Playoff runs always have their share of surprises. Here are three surprises and first blush conclusions on the tweaks that followed.

They should call the game “Goalie”

Pickard’s stock is rising with fans, media and the Oilers coaching staff this spring. His performance in Game 2 of the series against Vegas could fairly be categorized as thievery, stolen games being the most valuable (and rare, in these parts) goalie performance. Here’s a look at what has changed since the regular season ended:

All numbers via hockey-reference and Natural Stat Trick

Pickard’s role with the Oilers changed during the opening round series versus Los Angeles, as he went from career backup to overnight sensation in a heartbeat. Ironically, Pickard has very little playoff experience at any level. HockeyDB tells the tale. It’s clear he was up to the challenge, and the only thing that could keep him from the starter’s net is injury.

Fans and media got the word Saturday.

Skinner has a wealth of playoff experience. He backstopped the Oilers to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final one year ago. However, his postseason performance this season (two games, over four goals against per 60, two losses, .810 save percentage) was poor, and the young goalie lost the starter’s job.

The club won’t be able to take advantage of Pickard’s puckhandling and puck moving skills, and he played a brilliant Game 2, but Skinner is the next man up and stole some games last playoff season.

In the last two regular seasons, the numbers posted by both men at five-on-five suggest Pickard was the better man for the job:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

These totals don’t factor in quality of competition and various other issues (the Oilers are a streaky club and early-season performances have been chaotic) may factor in to these totals. Based on the numbers, it’s fair to say Pickard delivered better results over the largest available sample.

Skinner’s first game in the Vegas series ended with a late goal allowed and pain for all involved. The big goalie was uneven early in the game, made some terrific stops in the third period to keep the Oilers within a puncher’s chance.

In the end, Edmonton lost with Skinner in goal and the coaching staff will have to work a solution with limited options.

The McDavid-Draisaitl solution

A shocking statistic popped up during the regular season, and observers wondered how the coaching staff would handle it. That statistic is five-on-five scoring while Connor McDavid’s wingers don’t include Leon Draisaitl. Outperforming elites while playing with linemates of varying quality has always been a strength for the captain. McDavid has been able to push the river at even strength all down the line.

This year, the world’s greatest player missed a gear. Here are the “without you” numbers for McDavid without Draisaitl over the last several years.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The solo McDavid train rolled through those seasons with a fantastic 56 percent goal share, effectively giving the Oilers a massive advantage during all elite minutes.

In those same seasons, McDavid with Draisaitl delivered even more spectacularly: an incredible 61 percent (118-77) of the five-on-five goals. That includes 63 percent when the two hockey giants joined forces five-on-five in 2024-25’s regular season.

As the playoffs approached this spring, one of the key questions for Knoblauch and his staff involved playing the two big offensive guns together. Or apart. Knoblauch chose to play them on the top line with veteran Corey Perry, and the results have been impressive.

For the first time in memory, the Oilers have been rolling four lines, and those lines have been remarkably consistent. Here they are, with total playoff minutes and goal share:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

There are two major takeaways. First, all four lines have the outscoring edge at five-on-five through the first eight playoff games, giving the club an enormous advantage. Second, Edmonton’s coaching staff can (and does, based on the time-on-ice totals) just roll four lines and be confident in the outcomes.

One note: These goal percentages are in the smallest of samples, so they could turn south at a moment’s notice. Still, the lines are performing well: All but the fourth line are running an expected goal share over 50 percent in this year’s playoffs.

What does it mean? Knoblauch and his staff have a reputation for being able to find in-house workarounds that keep the motor firing on all pistons. It’s a helluva gift and was badly needed in the case of McDavid-Draisaitl.

The coaching staff got lucky in one way. The injury list, a massive headache all season, finally delivered the available talent to the active roster just in time to do damage in the playoffs.

Evander Kane and Trent Frederic have allowed the team to reimagine the entire left-wing depth chart. Mattias Janmark’s work at centre has covered over the lack of success in acquiring a right-handed fourth-line option at the deadline. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has rediscovered his patented release that allows him to score goals from range. Viktor Arvidsson has embraced a fourth-line role and flourished. Connor Brown found a new level of production that is borderline breathtaking.

A productive Russian player?

The Oilers and Russian players have an uneasy relationship going back decades. From draft day riches spent on a future that didn’t arrive as hoped (Nail Yakupov) to a laundry list of players who bolted the AHL farm team (it’s an actual laundry list), the Oilers are not a team that has had tremendous success with Russian players over the years.

Vasily Podkolzin may have never heard of Bogdan Yakimov or Ziyat Paigin or even Ilya Konovalov, and maybe that’s a good thing.

Podkolzin has been money for the Oilers this postseason. He delivered a rambunctious game during the regular season, but has added real offence to the mix during these playoffs. At five-on-five this spring through eight games, he was the proud owner of a 4.17 points per 60 total in the metric, and his line is outscoring opponents 5-1 (83 percent) while playing less than nine minutes per game.

If he keeps this up, and the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, he might end up celebrating his day with Stanley in Moscow with legions of Oilers fans. He’s that popular in the city right now.

Bottom line

The playoffs are all about chaos, innovation, injury and finding answers on the fly. In Pickard, the four-line shuffle, and Podkolzin, this version of the Oilers have found answers right on time.

The only certainty is change, but the Oilers need is in net. Game 4 should give us an idea about the coaching plan for allowing fewer than four goals.

(Photo: Walter Tychnowicz / Imagn Images)