Crystal Palace may have had a mixed first half of the season — a disappointing contrast to the superb run of six wins in seven games under February appointment Oliver Glasner at the back end of the previous one. But there are reasons to be positive.
Even during a challenging opening stretch of nine games where they won just once (and that was in match nine, against Tottenham), Palace were rarely comprehensively beaten or outplayed. The 5-1 home defeat by Arsenal on December 21 is an outlier, with most of their other matches being close.
Palace rank second in the Premier League in 2024-25 for time spent in marginal game states — 92 per cent of their match minutes have passed either with the scores level or one side or another ahead by one goal, an increase of nine per cent from last season. Only Fulham (96 per cent) have spent longer in such a position.
Just four of Palace’s 20 games have been decided by more than the odd goal (they’ve drawn nine times), and even some of those have been tight. The 3-1 away win against Brighton & Hove Albion last month saw Ismaila Sarr score in the 83rd minute to put the game beyond the hosts, but until that point there had been some concern and Palace had come under significant pressure. They had played well but were not especially convincing.
Palace won by two goals at Brighton but the latter stages of the game were still nervy (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Many of their games this season have reflected the same pattern, although Glasner’s men have switched from being solid defensively and struggling to score, to conceding more frequently but finding the back of the net more often than they were doing in the early weeks.
After eight games, Palace had scored the fewest goals in the division (five), a total that was their second-fewest in 16 seasons and part of their worst start yet to a Premier League campaign. Over the following eight matches, they got 12 goals, including two twice — in 2-2 draws with Aston Villa and Manchester City — and three in that win at Brighton.
It was unrealistic to expect anything like a continuation of their outstanding end to last season for several reasons.
Maxence Lacroix and Trevoh Chalobah’s arrivals and Joachim Andersen’s sale to Fulham has altered the profile of their defence, and Michael Olise’s move to Bayern Munich has inevitably been a major loss in attacking terms. Throw in the additions of Sarr, Eddie Nketiah and Daichi Kamada and Palace’s squad had been significantly changed.
Meanwhile, England midfielder Adam Wharton has struggled with a groin injury sustained in the summer and subsequently undergone surgery, having not played since late October. Glasner has also pointed on several occasions in his press conferences to it taking time to get his teams playing how he wants. Players returning to club duty late having been involved in international tournaments over the summer has affected that, while historically his sides tend to start seasons slowly.
The major reason for Palace’s lack of wins by more than one goal — the Brighton game is the only one among their four so far in the league this season — is pretty basic: they struggle to score. Only Everton, with 15, have fewer goals than Palace’s 21 among the 17 teams currently outside the relegation places.
Olise’s absence is a significant contributor to that, while the decision to opt for different profiles of players instead of signing direct replacements has also found Palace struggling in attack. They have the 2024-25 Premier League’s fewest dribbles attempted with 251, according to fbref.com, significantly adrift of the team with the next lowest total (Ipswich, 311). Their 17 take-ons leading to shots is the worst in the division for that metric, too.
Midfielder Wharton’s ongoing absence is a blow for Glasner and Palace (Warren Little/Getty Images)
Sarr’s improvement has helped them to score, with three goals and an assist in his past four league appearances, but there is insufficient support from elsewhere and the way Palace attack has changed markedly from their first few months under Glasner at the end of last season.
When Palace have scored more than once in a game, they have been less secure defensively. Glasner does not, though, believe there is a connection.
“When we didn’t win for many games, we didn’t concede goals (from) set plays but now we concede more,” he said in his press conference before the Boxing Day draw with Bournemouth. “There were four or five in the last games. If we take this away, it’s the same (number of goals conceded) in open play, maybe like before.
“We don’t play more offensively like we did at the beginning. This week (in that 5-1 defeat by Arsenal) was the first time we conceded more than two goals in a game.
“We have to see what happened in these three games — we pressed them very high (but) we didn’t concede any of these eight goals after high pressing. They couldn’t solve it, (we didn’t give) them too much space behind (the press). There were two set plays and a cross — it was different situations.”
The pressure on the Palace defence is increased by the team’s failure to take chances when they are created. Palace are the third most wasteful team in the league compared to their expected goals (xG) figure — almost seven below their expected total from open play, despite ranking eighth for shots taken.
Glasner has adapted his team well to mitigate their shortcomings. Lacroix’s improvement and his partnership with fellow newcomer Chalobah and Marc Guehi at the back has been excellent as they have grown more familiar with each other over an eight-game unbroken run of being selected together. Yet there are individual errors letting them down.
While Palace have scored the fewest goals of those clubs outside the relegation zone, they have also conceded the least of any team in the bottom half (28, level with Manchester United) other than Everton (25). That gives a strong indication as to why their games tend to be such close affairs. Only Everton (2.11) and Nottingham Forest (2.40) are averaging fewer total goals per game (those scored and conceded) than Palace’s 2.45.
This Palace team is more functional than the one we saw at the end of last season, it is missing an outstanding attacker after the sale of Olise plus Wharton’s continued absence means the profile of midfielder has changed, with the 20-year-old’s “pre-orientation”, as Glasner calls it, a huge miss in terms of not moving the ball quickly enough in the midfield and final third.
Palace have lost only one of their past nine games, the Arsenal 5-1, but that run includes five draws. A further reason for that is likely to be because they don’t have the quality in attack to take a match away from their opponents entirely, and are still vulnerable defensively as a result.
The change in style as a result of Olise’s departure is unquestionably a major factor, but not the sole reason their attack has been less successful. Glasner’s adaptability is impressive as he has improved results after that alarming run of eight matches without a league win (five of them losses) to start the season.
Without strengthening the squad in the ongoing winter transfer window and becoming more clinical in front of goal, Palace can expect to keep playing out tight games. That is likely to continue the nervousness that has been apparent in the atmosphere at their matches this season, and, despite them being seventh in the form table over the past nine games, could restrict them as they try to climb the table away from the relegation scrap.
(Top photo: Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
