Did the Houston Astros just get the best starter who will be traded at the deadline?
Yusei Kikuchi wasn’t at the top of any trade deadline list, not even our own. With an ERA in the mid-fours that matches his career number, he just didn’t seem like top-of-the-list material. But the Astros’ new lefty has a lot going for him.
He has gas. At 95.7 mph on the four-seam, only Cole Ragans, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet average a higher number among qualified lefty starters. He also has great “ride” on the fastball — it doesn’t drop as much as hitters expect due to its spin — and only Ragans combines more velocity with that kind of ride among lefties, and even if you open it up to righties you only add Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow and their tremendous fastballs to the list. That’s an elite fastball.
Velocity is also incredibly important for breaking pitches. At 89.2 mph on his slider, Kikuchi has the second-fastest slider among qualified starters. There’s Glasnow ahead of him, and that’s it. If you open it up to all pitchers, that kind of a slider with that type of gas and that much drop profiles as similar to the ones thrown by Jared Jones, Ryan Helsley, Cease, and Tanner Scott.
An 82.9 mph curveball puts him fifth on the list, behind Glasnow yet again along with Logan Gilbert. Velo is not always great for changeups, but his 87.2 mph change is of the power variety and also in the top 20 for qualified starters — and hitters are hitting under .200 on the pitch this year.
Yusei Kikuchi, Dirty 88mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/PTUuZdxsQe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2024
Add up all of those pitch characteristics and Kikuchi is 11th in Stuff+ among qualified starters, just behind Luis Gil and a bit back from Glasnow, Gilbert, and Corbin Burnes. By strikeouts minus walks, a powerfully predictive pitcher metric, he’s 15th, right behind Freddy Peralta and ahead of Gilbert. None of the pitchers ahead of him on those lists, save perhaps Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal, will likely be traded this deadline.
So why does Kikuchi have an ERA that’s so bloated?
Some part of it has to be luck. 34 percent of his balls in play have gone for hits. That’s the worst ratio of his career, and a number that trends around 29-30 percent among all pitchers as a group. This is despite the defense behind him being rated as positive or at the top of the league by various defensive metrics. That’s weird.
There’s also the fact that he probably doesn’t have great natural command. Earlier in his career, it was maybe even bad. Now it’s just around average, but it might manifest in an inflated home run rate. Or maybe the Astros have a different approach for Kikuchi to get the most out of his mix.
Either way, Kikuchi will have either the best or second-best stuff among the starting pitchers traded at the deadline. The White Sox and Tigers might have some say in the matter. But the Astros should be very happy with their new hard-throwing left-hander.
(Photo: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
