Cal State Fullerton commencement 202
Credit: Cal State Fullerton/Flickr
California State University’s fall 2024 enrollment has risen to 461,000 students, driven by record gains among first-time, first-year students that nonetheless left the system short of its fall 2020 peak.
Preliminary data show enrollment across the 23-campus system has inched up 2%, buoyed by more than 68,500 new first-year students this fall.
But Cal State has not yet returned to its 2020 high point, when enrollment hit 485,550 students. Headcount dipped for each of the next three school years, settling at 454,640 students in fall 2023.
In a press release, Chancellor Mildred García said the system is pursuing a “multi-year, holistic enrollment growth strategy” and is focused on recruiting and retaining students, including community college transfers.
“This promising upward momentum demonstrates the confidence that Californians have in the extraordinary power of a CSU degree to transform lives, particularly for America’s new majority, comprised of first-generation students, students of color, low-income students and adults seeking new opportunities,” García said.
Cal State reported a 7% increase in enrollment among transfer students, a 2% increase among graduate students and a 1% increase among continuing undergraduate students.
Preliminary figures show that 54% of CSU’s first-year students are Latino and that 4% of first-year students are Black. The CSU press release did not break out data on Native American, Asian American and Pacific Islander student enrollment in fall 2024, nor was campus-level enrollment reported. The university system expects to release final systemwide numbers in November.
FAFSA fallout?
Increased enrollment at Cal State will be welcome news to observers that feared an adverse impact on enrollment due to the rocky roll out of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).
Changes to the FAFSA that debuted last year were designed to be faster and more efficient for families. But delays and glitches plagued the new form, a critical step students must complete in order to find out if they’re eligible for federal aid such as Pell Grants, loans and work-study programs.
The troubled FAFSA cycle sparked worries that students uncertain about their financial aid packages would put off enrolling in college this school year. Previous research has found that receiving grant aid boosts students’ persistence and degree completion.
Financial aid officers and advocates also voiced concern about how the new FAFSA was impacting California students from mixed-status families. Many of those students, who have at least one parent without a Social Security number, had trouble submitting a FAFSA.
The delays prompted both Cal State and the University of California to extend their spring deadlines for new students to declare their intent to register for fall 2024 classes, a recognition that many families would need more time to get a better understanding of how much their education would cost.
California ultimately fared better than most other states in terms of FAFSA completions, according to data from the National College Attainment Network. The state notched a 56% FAFSA completion rate, exceeding a rate of roughly 52% among high school seniors nationwide. That’s despite a 7% year-over-year decline in the number of FAFSA completions in California.
Cal State credited financial aid staff at its universities with helping students to work through a frustrating FAFSA cycle and processing provisional financial aid offers quickly. (The press release cited a rise in federal Pell Grants at CSU, but did not say how much awards increased.)
Difficulties with the FAFSA rollout might also have been offset by California’s universal FAFSA completion policy, which was passed in 2021. Assembly Bill 132 tasks school districts with ensuring that graduating seniors complete the FAFSA or the California Dream Act Application, but gives students the ability to opt out of doing so. A recent report by The Public Policy Institute of California found that applications from high school seniors ahead of the UC and CSU’s March 2 deadline climbed 16% in the policy’s first year.
Denise Luna, the director of higher education policy at research and advocacy nonprofit EdTrust-West, said in a written statement that Cal State’s preliminary numbers indicate that giving prospective students more time to consider the costs of a CSU education was not just the right thing to do, but also “the strategic thing to do.”
“This year’s applicants need the same flexibility,” she wrote. “Since financial aid application timelines are delayed again, we will be looking to the CSU to plan to once again extend their intent-to-register deadline in 2025.”
Post-pandemic prognosis
CSU’s preliminary fall headcount is also a step toward reversing pandemic-era enrollment declines.
Enrollment across the CSU system fell 1.7% in fall 2021, part of a nationwide drop during Covid-19. 17 of the system’s 23 campuses saw a year-over-year enrollment slump.
Cal State campuses reacted with strategies designed to entice students back, including programs to re-enroll students who stopped attending college with incentives like waived fees and priority registration.
But CSU enrollment continued to slide in fall 2022, a consequence of record-low enrollment at the state’s community colleges, which had the knock-on effect of fewer transfer students entering Cal State.
Demographic trends in the state’s K-12 system may also impact CSU’s student body going forward. In the 2022-23 school year, K-12 public school enrollment contracted for the sixth consecutive year. The California Department of Finance projects a drop of more than 660,000 public K-12 students by 2032-33 if current fertility and migration trends continue.
Still, CSU sees this fall’s numbers as a good omen. Preliminary fall 2024 enrollment, though 5% below the system’s 2020 peak, “signals additional growth in the coming years,” a system announcement said.
