Euro 2024 final analysis and predictions: Can England upset favourites Spain? – Tips and Tricks

This article is part of our ‘Tips and Tricks’ series, where we use data and know-how to identify trends and insights for Euro 2024. You can find all the articles in the series here.

Just two teams remain at Euro 2024 and, for the second successive European championship, one of them is an England side who muscled their way past the Netherlands in Dortmund on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Spain outclassed France on Tuesday to set up a clash of styles in Berlin. But who will come out on top? Let’s look at the numbers.

Stylish Spain

Nothing over the past three and a half weeks has been easier on the eye than Spain in full flow, and there is no doubt they deserve their place in the tournament’s 51st match.

On Tuesday night, they became the first team in history to win six games at a single Euros when they beat France — at that point, the competition’s best defence.

Once again, it was Lamine Yamal stealing the show and the odds on him being named player of the tournament took a tumble after he curled home a cracker to cancel out the French opener, while providing a perfect response to Adrien Rabiot’s pre-match dig that he must “do more” if he wants to play in a European Championship final.

Spain focused much their attacking intent down the left hand side

In the race for the Golden Boot, Yamal’s team-mate Dani Olmo also had his price shortened after he grabbed the winner against France. He now has three goals and two assists in the tournament.

Barcelona youngster Yamal turns 17 on Saturday and much has been said about him bringing his homework to Germany — England will be sure to have studied his performance against Les Bleus and throughout the tournament.

Apart from the glorious goal and the crisp pass into the box which led to Olmo’s strike, he was doing the defensive work when France pushed early in the second half, and he picked up a yellow card for a tactical foul on Theo Hernandez late in the game, taking one for the team to make sure the lead was protected.

France did find ways past the Spanish back line and more than once got the better of their press, but their finishing was poor. Kylian Mbappe and Hernandez were among those who had good opportunities but both failed to hit the target. Can England do any better?

England expects

England will take on Spain on Sunday night after Gareth Southgate steered his side to a second successive European Championship final.

Southgate has been on a bit of a bumpy ride to Berlin while the Spanish, now favourites to lift the trophy, have dazzled their way through the tournament.

But, anything can happen. Just ask Ollie Watkins.

The Aston Villa striker was a late substitute against the Netherlands in Wednesday’s semi-final and fired home the last-gasp winner for England’s third come-from-behind victory in this knockout stage, after Slovakia and Switzerland.

How England performed against The Netherlands

The Netherlands vs England match dashboard

It was only after going a goal down to the Dutch that England clicked into gear. Kobbie Mainoo showed his class at both ends and Phil Foden played his best football of the tournament.

The Manchester City man was twice close to scoring in Dortmund and he appeals to hit the back of the net at any time in the final.

Captain Harry Kane is the favourite in the scorer markets and he won, and converted, a penalty to jump back to the head of the betting for the Golden Boot.

Of the six players tied on three goals, only Kane and Dani Olmo are still in the tournament, while Jude Bellingham and Fabian Ruiz have both scored twice. Ruiz was on target in Spain’s opening game against Croatia, also in Berlin, and they have never looked back since that 3-0 win.

Can Kane and Co go one better than Euro 2020? If they play like they did in the first half against the Netherlands, they have a chance. And they might only need one or two.

Euros finals tend to be tight, and in the seven going back to 1996, four have ended all square after 90 minutes, and two have finished 1-0.  The odd one out was in 2012 when a certain all-conquering team in red dished out a 4-0 thumping to Italy.

We’ll be steering clear of the long odds on a repeat of that scoreline and instead going for Spain to win 2-1.

The Tips and Tricks series is part of a partnership with Betfair. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

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