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AUSTIN, Texas — Championship contenders Max Verstappen and Lando Norris have renewed their battle upon Formula One’s return to the Lone Star State, setting up a tantalizing fight for the United States Grand Prix on Sunday.
Norris secured pole, but Verstappen will be beside him on the front row as the two competitors charge uphill toward a tight Turn 1. Verstappen leads the championship by 54 points after winning the sprint race earlier on Saturday, his first win of any kind in 112 days. McLaren still has the edge over Red Bull in the constructor standings on a weekend when a technical battle unfolded off-track, adding an interesting twist to the title fight — even if the FIA said it is now a “non-story.”
It wasn’t just Red Bull and McLaren that had the pace at COTA on Saturday. Ferrari showed encouraging speed as Carlos Sainz qualified third, only three-tenths of a second back, prompting Norris to believe the Ferraris could be a threat at the front. But Mercedes isn’t in the same ballpark. Lewis Hamilton qualified P19 after a rough Saturday, and George Russell crashed in Turn 19 during the final Q3 laps.
There’s plenty to play for among the lower midfield, with the likes of Alpine and Haas starting in the top 10. And Liam Lawson may need to serve a 60-place grid penalty, but his qualifying indicates he may not be far off the kind of pace he displayed through his 2023 cameo.
As the paddock prepares for the U.S. Grand Prix and the rest of Austin focuses on the Texas Longhorns-Georgia Bulldogs football game, we dive more into the storylines we are keeping an eye on heading into Sunday.
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Norris and Verstappen’s fight hinges on more than Turn 1
Verstappen’s controlled, comprehensive sprint race victory on Saturday afternoon at COTA was an important result to snap McLaren’s recent momentum. It was Verstappen’s first win since the Austrian GP sprint in June, but the bigger tell was his positivity about the performance of his car. At last, a Red Bull car upgrade had worked and returned the confidence he’d lost.
But Norris wasn’t going to back down without a fight. He was disappointed with how the sprint race ended, struggling with his tires toward the end as he barely clung to third, only for some car setup changes ahead of qualifying to put him back in contention.
It took a magic lap from Norris to secure pole, one he would “probably say quite confidently (was) the best of my career.” He also needed a bit of luck with the yellow flags after Russell’s late crash to deny Verstappen a late improvement. The duo will go side-by-side up the hill to Turn 1 tomorrow in the next installment of their title battle.
“It’s going to be a tough race,” Norris said. “Ferrari were very quick in the race today with the degradation. Max is Max, so (Red Bull is) going to be fast. I’m excited. I think it’s going to be a good battle and a good one to watch.”
Verstappen may have lost out to Norris by three-hundredths of a second, but he remained upbeat about the performance of his car. He said it now felt more stable, allowing him to attack the corners with greater confidence, and that it was proving easier on its tires. The sprint race victory was a welcome boost, as was the outright pace over a single lap. “We could at least fight for pole, and that has been a while,” Verstappen said.
After the pivotal opening lap, the race could become one of tire management and strategy plays. Unlike races like Singapore or Zandvoort, it genuinely appears that Red Bull and McLaren are now very even for pace, potentially setting up a really exciting fight for victory between the two championship protagonists.
Keep an eye on Ferrari
While the championship battle remains between Norris and Verstappen, don’t rule out Ferrari’s threat.
Sainz and Charles Leclerc battled early in the sprint race, the Spaniard later taking the lead between the two of them. The pair were flying, but the fact it was a sprint race was a big caveat because teams could make changes to the cars before grand prix qualifying. But come later Saturday, Sainz qualified third, and Leclerc will line up beside him for a Ferrari second row.
“That second lap, I don’t know what changed, if it was lower track temp or what, but the car came alive, and we were coming in a very fast lap,” Sainz said. “To be in the ballpark with (Verstappen and Norris), whether it would have beaten them or not, I don’t know.”
Sainz said he is “relatively” confident about Ferrari’s chances. He noted the race is rather long, and he anticipates the field to be close. Circuit of the Americas is the first “normal” track F1 has been on since Zandvoort and Spa, Sainz said — and at that time, the front teams were “uber-clear, two-to-four tenths off from a McLaren or a Mercedes.”
But in Austin, Sainz said, “The reality is that this weekend, we’re in the fight.” Leclerc, meanwhile, reckons, “If we see a similar pace to this morning, we have chances to win. However, I expect the others to have done a step forward.”
Ferrari brought an upgrade package to Monza, but the team truly wouldn’t know how it would perform until F1 returned to the traditional tracks, like COTA. Sunday will be the first true test to see where the Prancing Horse is heading into this final stretch.
“Tomorrow is the real test, a whole race,” Leclerc said. “If we see a similar pace to this morning in the race, I think we did a step forward, for sure.”
Ferrari and Mercedes’s Texas fortunes have diverged as the weekend has progressed. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
After early promise, Mercedes prepares for a tough race
There was a point on Friday when Mercedes looked like the team to beat at COTA. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell were on rapid laps towards the end of SQ3, only for a yellow flag to impact their times. On Saturday, Russell briefly looked like a threat in the sprint before dropping back due to tire wear, eventually crossing the line down in fifth ahead of Hamilton.
Mercedes’ backward slide continued through qualifying, with Hamilton — a five-time winner in Austin — suffering a shock Q1 exit before Russell crashed at the end of Q3, leaving his car with damage to the front-left corner.
Hamilton reported after the session that a part had failed on his front suspension ahead of the sprint race, and despite it being changed for qualifying, the car “felt like a mess.”
It baffled Hamilton. “Yesterday, all of a sudden, we were looking really quick,” he said. “I don’t know where that went. But we’ll keep pushing.”
Russell qualified sixth in Q3 despite the crash, for which he apologized to the team after its efforts to get the new parts ready for Austin. He was also confused by the lack of pace.
“It seems like such a theme at the moment; when we find the sweet spot, we’ve got a car that’s capable of pole positions and race wins. When we can’t find that sweet spot, we’re nowhere,” Russell told Sky Sports F1.
Friday’s pace should offer Mercedes hope that it can rediscover that sweet spot, but it needs to understand where that pace went. Hamilton admitted he would be best to start from the pit lane and allow the team to make some setup changes, but thought there was “not going to be a lot going on” with his race.
“I started in karts with a pretty bad go-kart and used to come through the field,” Hamilton said. “So I’ll see if I can do that tomorrow.”
The midfield battle looks closer than ever
While the focus is on the leading teams and their upgrade packages amid the intensity of the title battle, Austin will also be a crucial weekend for the midfield runners.
Haas ran split specifications with its cars through the sprint, giving its upgrade package to Nico Hülkenberg, while Kevin Magnussen ran the old version. It still managed to get both cars into the points to move ahead of RB to P6 in the championship. Magnussen got the updates for qualifying and was ahead of Hülkenberg again, reaching Q3 in P9.
Hülkenberg rued a difficult Q2 as he dropped out in 12th. However, with Lawson starting at the back due to his grid penalty and Yuki Tsunoda alone in 11th, Haas is in a good position to try to edge clear of RB.
Alpine also can overturn Williams’ three-point lead in their scrap for P8 in the championship. Pierre Gasly comfortably reached Q3 on Saturday, eventually qualifying seventh as both Williams cars dropped out in Q1.
There was even a boost for Aston Martin as Fernando Alonso made it through to Q3 and qualified eighth. The team is marooned in fifth in the championship, yet it needs to understand why it has struggled so much for pace at points this year. Alonso said the updates in Austin helped the car perform better, “but it’s still a challenging car to drive and to strike the maximum.”
Except for Williams and Sauber, it seems all of the midfield runners have a real shot at being ‘best of the rest’ and coming away with some precious points in Austin. Right now, every point — and every position — is vital.
F1’s midfield intrigue has also ratcheted up at COTA. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
What to expect from Lawson
The odds were stacked against Lawson before he even made it to Austin.
In the days after it was announced that Lawson would replace Daniel Ricciardo for the remainder of the season, rumblings started that the 22-year-old would face a grid penalty in Austin for power unit changes. The stewards confirmed on Friday that he faced a 60-place grid penalty for Sunday’s race, which means he will “start behind any other classified driver.”
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Lawson still floored it during Q1 on Saturday. He navigated his way to P3 that session, finishing in front of both McLarens. Over the radio, Lawson said it’s “a shame” after that flying session, considering the looming penalty, but he did show the pace he has.
“Put that aside, it’s more just frustrating because (of) the performance of the car,” Lawson said. “The pace was really strong in Q1. Obviously, we’d only really improve from there, that’s the idea. So, there was plenty of positives going forwards. Obviously, it just feels a bit of a waste. But I understand as well why we’re doing (the power unit changes). It completely makes sense. We didn’t know it was going to be like this.”
RB had him tow Tsunoda twice in Q2, though both were knocked out in that round. Lawson qualified P15, while Tsunoda was P11.
Lawson will face a fight through the grid. But after not racing competitively this year, he’s shown that he still has the fire within him, like his close calls with Alonso. Lawson’s got six races (and two more sprints) to make his case for staying in F1, considering RB has yet to announce who will race alongside Tsunoda in 2025.
“Honestly, it’s building each weekend. Unfortunately, we start from scratch a little bit each weekend, because most of the tracks are new. And we have to learn them, especially in the sprint weekends,” Lawson said about his targets. “This weekend was tough. I’m sure it’s going to be like that in Brazil and in Qatar. But put that aside, it’s just building on each weekend, fighting for points.
“We’re now, I think, tied with Haas for P6, so the goal for the team is to try and finish P6. We need to do that, and from my side, I need to score points to make that happen. So, that’s what the goal is.”
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(Top photos: Rudy Carezzevoli / Getty Images, Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images
