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Looking ahead in January
Before we get into the nitty gritty of Week 14, we want to help managers plan ahead regarding their add/drops.
The Senators have one of the better schedules in January, with three consecutive four-game slates. Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Calgary, Detroit, Florida and Philadelphia have two four-game weeks. On the other hand, the Predators, Blues and Blackhawks max out at three-game slates.
Four Game Streamers (Week 14)
Logan Thompson, G, WSH | 77% Yahoo
Thompson isn’t a bonafide number-one goalie in terms of deployment. The Capitals start him every other game, which likely explains why he is still available in 33 percent of leagues. But his caliber of play should push that roster percentage upwards — he has saved 14 goals above expected and put up 14 quality starts in 19 appearances so far this season.
Kevin Lankinen, G, VAN | 63% Yahoo
Thatcher Demko left Thursday night’s game against Seattle, which sent Lankinen back into the starter’s net. At the time of this writing, we don’t know what is ailing Demko and whether he will be sidelined. But if he is, Lankinen is worth leaning on again. Yes, he lost three straight games to end December, but he gave his team a chance to win in two of those games with quality starts. And he showed just how solid he can be in a starting rhythm.
Jamie Benn, C/LW, DAL | 54% Yahoo
The Stars’ second line is super short-handed, with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment sidelined. But Dallas found a new-look combination with potential in Benn, Wyatt Johnston and Matt Duchene. The combination earned a 71 percent expected goal rate and a 3-0 scoring edge in their first 25 minutes of action ahead of Thursday night’s matchup against the Senators.
Any member of this combination is a worthwhile add. Benn is just the most attainable of the three. He’s been a productive part of the middle-six all season and generally still brings fantasy value to the secondary categories on nights he isn’t on the scoresheet. And with the Stars having back-to-back four-game slates, managers will get a lot of bang for their buck.
Marco Rossi, C, MIN | 31% Yahoo
Rossi’s fantasy value continues to trend up this season. Even with Kirill Kaprizov sidelined, he is still in a position to succeed alongside the team’s best, at even strength and on the power play. That power-play usage may trend down when Kaprizov returns — it hasn’t been at full strength through much of the season between injuries to Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek and now Kaprizov. But even if Rossi does get demoted to PP2, his even-strength time alongside an MVP-caliber winger should make up for it.
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, COL | 29% Yahoo
There is still no timetable for Landeskog’s return, so managers shouldn’t be racing to add him. But there has been some progress in the forward’s long-awaited path back to action after participating in the morning skate on Thursday morning, which is progress. While rust should be expected, considering how long he has been sidelined, Landeskog should boost Colorado’s top nine when he’s up to speed.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW, WSH | 27% Yahoo
Three of the Capitals’ four games next week are on light nights, making Washington a team to target. With Alex Ovechkin back, the top line has more scoring potential. But a new-look second line has our attention right now. Heading into Thursday night, Dubois, Tom Wilson and Aliaksei Protas were rocking a 63 percent expected goal rate and a 5-2 scoring advantage. They built on that against the Wild with a 19-8 shot attempt edge and 89 percent of the expected goal share, plus another two goals.
Jackson LaCombe, D, ANA | 13% Yahoo
The Ducks’ goaltending has been far from perfect in LaCombe’s minutes, but Anaheim’s five-on-five expected goal creation has trended up in his minutes over the last month or so of action. And he’s been getting more power play opportunities since Trevor Zegras went down with an injury. The forward convert has offensive instincts and is learning on the fly how to translate them to the position at the NHL level.
Earlier in the season, LaCombe shoots this puck ten times out of ten. Instead, he dishes to the corner, makes a drive to the net (gets tripped), gets a pass in a dangerous area of the ice, and nearly dances his way to a goal
Jackson’s feeling it#FlyTogether pic.twitter.com/VHFh4rxABy
— Patrick Present (@PatrickCPresent) December 19, 2024
Michael Bunting, LW, PIT | 12% Yahoo
Pittsburgh’s power play is on the rise over this last stretch, with 10 goals over their last 10 games, which coincides with Bunting getting more opportunity on PP1, where he’s earned five points on those 10 goals. There’s a good chance to build on that next week. Two of the Penguins’ upcoming opponents, the Blue Jackets and Oilers, do a good job of limiting chances against while short-handed, but the goaltending hasn’t always cooperated. The Senators, on the other hand, are a bottom-10 team in expected and actual goal suppression on the penalty kill.
Jaden Schwartz, C/LW, SEA | 11% Yahoo
Babe, wake up; there’s a new first line in Seattle. After starting the year with Chandler Stephenson, Schwartz’s expected and actual goal creation have been better since moving to Matty Beniers’ wing. The Kaapo Kakko trade brought in a new right-winger to complete this combo. Before Thursday night’s game against the Canucks, the trio was rocking a 76 percent expected goal rate in about 33 minutes of five-on-five play with a 4-1 scoring edge. While each member of this trio is proving to be productive, Schwartz has the shot volume and quality edge, which gives him a little more fantasy value than his teammates.
OK Kaapo!
3-2 #SeaKraken after Kakko intercepts a pass and then sends a perfect stretch pass to Schwartz who scores 5-hole pic.twitter.com/rGeYczogqO
— Alison (@AlisonL) December 31, 2024
Josh Manson, D, COL | 5% Yahoo
Manson usually isn’t the biggest offensive creator. But he can boost a team with contributions in secondary categories. He can be counted on for a couple of shots per game, so keep an eye on that, especially against a poor defensive team like the Blackhawks. And his shot-blocking and hitting should be handy against the Panthers.
Ridly Greig, C/RW, OTT | 1% Yahoo
A first-line role with Brady Tkachuk and Shane Pinto agrees with Greig. He’s a pick for those in deeper leagues who want to bet on the Senators ahead of some big Eastern Conference matchups against the Red Wings, Sabres and Penguins next week. If this line sticks together, this is an extra beneficial add because the Senators are four-game streamers three times in January.
Erik Brannstrom, D, VAN | 1% Yahoo
The Canucks’ forward group isn’t as deep with Elias Pettersson sidelined, and their overall offensive potential is dampened without their MVP, Quinn Hughes. But Vancouver’s schedule is too good to ignore, with three light nights in a four-game slate. Conor Garland’s a fine pick on the second line and Kiefer Sherwood will always be attractive in banger leagues. But one player to watch is Brannstrom, who has been bumped up to PP1 in Hughes’ absence.
Light Night Performers
See every player pick above? Each one is a light night performer. But there are a few more worth highlighting.
Carolina, Detroit, Los Angeles, Florida, Utah, Chicago and Montreal each have two light nights ahead next week.
On the Canadiens, Jake Evans has been trending up with some depth scoring lately. Alexandre Carrier can contribute some shots and blocks from the backend. Quinton Byfield is excelling with the Kings after a slow start and brings a lot of lineup versatility with eligibility in all three forward positions.
The Hurricanes have a knack for maximizing depth players. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis have been elevating Jack Roslovic on the top line. On the backend, Ty Smith has been promoted while Shayne Gostisbehere is injured, which is noteworthy because he is quarterbacking the team’s power play unit.
Fantasy Value Trends
Fantasy hockey rankings and projections have been updated, so let’s take a quick look at the biggest swings in each direction since the last update on Dec. 9.
A few Blue Jackets are headlining the list. Dmitri Voronkov is thriving on a top line with Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko. The combination is rocking a 62 percent expected goal rate and has outscored opponents 20-4. This trio probably won’t shoot almost 18 percent forever but should still be productive even when that eventually regresses closer to average.
Macklin Celebrini is the real deal in San Jose, while Rossi is excelling in Minnesota. Logan Cooley is taking strides in Utah on a star-powered second line with Dylan Guenther. All of these young guns are keeper options.
Matt Coronato and Blake Coleman are worth adding when Calgary has a more favorable schedule. The same applies to Noah Cates, who is rounding out his shutdown defense with more offense lately.
On the backend, Cam Fowler is clicking with his new club in St. Louis. At five-on-five, the Blues are scoring more in his minutes, but his play below the surface doesn’t match that, which is something to track moving forward from a sustainability standpoint.
The Canucks are hurting without Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, but Jake DeBrusk should pick up the pace a bit more as the team gets healthy.
Dylan Cozens’ offense has declined a lot over the last couple of seasons. And while he has shown glimpses of a breakout year, they aren’t consistent enough to hang onto him in fantasy. Former Sabre Jeff Skinner hasn’t fit in well enough in Edmonton, either. His value depends on his role — if he’s with the team’s elite centers, there’s potential. Otherwise, there are better options. The same applies to Pavel Dorofeyev, who is down on the third line in Vegas and off PP1.
In New York, Mika Zibanejad’s struggles have been front-and-center during a downward spiral. He’s coming off one of his better performances of the season after breaking through Thursday with his first even-strength goal since Nov. 19. But a lot of his value hinges on his role on the Rangers’ power play — if he doesn’t get back on PP1 soon, or this team can’t get back on track, managers may have to cut their losses.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Logan Thompson: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
