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Chicago’s not the only city with a struggling offensive play caller. Dianna will be back with us here tomorrow. Just Jacob here, and today, we’re looking at:
- Takeaways from firing Waldron
- Which coach could go next?
- An early 2025 QB mock
- Dane Brugler’s Big Board
Chicago after Waldron
After the Bears fired offensive OC Shane Waldron on Tuesday morning and replaced him with Thomas Brown, the team’s passing game coordinator, I couldn’t help but wonder: Will this make any difference?
Bears beat reporters Adam Jahns and Kevin Fishbain explain why this matters for Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams:
“In a way, Brown is now coaching to save Eberflus’ job. That isn’t hyperbole. There have been too many signs of discord to ignore. Veteran players should be upset. They should want change. Firing Waldron is just one part of this. Brown is Eberflus’ third offensive coordinator in three seasons, not to mention all the staff changes that happened during and after last season.”
Is Brown up to the task? Only time will tell.
As for what we could see: After Frank Reich’s dismissal last season, Brown was given the offensive reigns in Carolina. There, he placed an emphasis on the run game — their rushing attempts per game jumped by 5.4 and their rushing yards per game went from 92.6 to 125.0. Good news for any D’Andre Swift fantasy shares you hold.
Hot Seat 🔥: Who could be next?
The role of an offensive play caller differs from team to team.
In Washington and Detroit, respective OCs Kliff Kingsbury and Ben Johnson command the offense. In Los Angeles, head coach Sean McVay calls the plays as Mike LaFleur — the first OC McVay has allowed to take over certain areas of practice — helps to create and present game plans.
While none of those coaches will join recently fired Bears OC Shane Waldron in the unemployment line this season, there are plenty who could. Those are:
Browns HC Kevin Stefanski. The 2023 Coach of the Year had been running Cleveland’s offense until recently handing the reins to OC Ken Dorsey. This year, it ranks last in the NFL in offensive DVOA (minus 35 percent) by a wide margin, and the two closest teams — the Raiders (minus 21.9 percent) and Bears (minus 21.7 percent) — already fired their play callers.
- My take: Instead of Stefanski or Dorsey, blame Deshaun Watson and Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, who likely forced Stefanski to keep playing the doomed QB.
Jaguars OC Press Taylor split play-calling duties with HC Doug Pederson in 2022, Trevor Lawrence’s best year. But since Taylor was given full reigns to call the offense in 2023, the Jaguars have looked disjointed, struggle on the ground (their 100.9 rush yards per game rank 28th) and have little hope, especially with Lawrence (shoulder) out for potentially the remainder of the season.
- My take: Blame falls largely on Taylor, with whom the Jaguars offense has particularly struggled to convert third downs. They fell from ninth in 2022 to 22nd with Taylor calling plays.
Texans OC Bobby Slowik. One year after looking like a future head coach, his failure to improve has been drastic. While continuing to insist on the run — the Texans have the league’s worst EPA when running in passing situations — their offensive success rate (36.4 percent) ranks 31st, ahead of only the Browns. You have to feel for C.J. Stroud, who is leading the NFL in third-and-long attempts.
- My take: I blame Slowik. Despite Houston’s defense gifting his offense five interceptions on Sunday night, the team lost after he called 28 run plays that averaged two yards per carry. He has failed to maximize talent, something QB coach Jerrod Johnson could do.
Giants HC Brian Daboll. “Daboll took over play-calling duties from OC Mike Kafka after the Giants averaged 15.6 points per game to finish 30th in scoring last season. The Giants are again averaging 15.6 points this season,” noted beat reporter Dan Duggan when reviewing the case for retaining Daboll. This year, that average ranks last.
- My take: Keep Daboll. Get a new quarterback. Daniel Jones has an EPA per dropback that ranks 26th, and as Dan pointed out, “the Giants are 3-13 in games started by Jones over the past two seasons. Backups Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito combined to go 5-6 last season.”
Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy. No matter where you choose to assign blame for the lost season (hello, Jerry!), the injury caveat looms large. Dak Prescott is now gone for the year, DaRon Bland is yet to make his season debut, DeMarcus Lawrence hasn’t played since September and Micah Parsons has played just five games. Jerry Jones has said they won’t fire McCarthy midseason, but he’s also declined to extend the coach’s contract.
Other play callers to watch:
2025 Mock: Miami’s Cam Ward, No. 1 QB?
When The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler updated his 2025 Big Board yesterday, he noted that “the only consensus at this stage is that teams are struggling to find positive conviction on any of these quarterbacks.”
The pickings are just as slim in the expected 2025 free agent class, headlined by Sam Darnold, current backup Justin Fields and the soon-to-be-36 Russell Wilson.
But with four months until free agency opens and five before the draft, there’s plenty of time for quarterbacks to move up/down boards. For now, here’s a quick look at who could land where:
Miami QB Cam Ward: Browns. Austin Mock’s rest-of-season projections have the Browns, Titans, Giants, Panthers and Raiders all in contention for the No. 1 pick. Cleveland having the toughest remaining schedule could mean first dibs on Ward, Dane’s highest-ranked quarterback. He writes that Ward’s “ability to create explosive, dazzling plays with his elusiveness in the pocket and natural arm talent is unmatched in this class.”
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders: Raiders. After a video surfaced in which it sounds like owner Mark Davis is telling Deion Sanders’ son that he watches all his games, this feels like the most likely landing spot. Sanders — a poised pocket passer who’s led a struggling program to the College Football Playoff bubble — reminds Dane of Jordan Love “without the high-end physical traits.” Oof.
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe: Titans. Dane considers Milroe a “rocket-fueled version of Jalen Hurts, with a unique package of skills with his size (6-1, 225), 4.3 speed, outstanding arm strength and strong mental makeup. Consistent ball placement is not a strength of his game right now,” and he could fall in the draft, potentially landing behind Will Levis to learn for a year or two.
Georgia QB Carson Beck: Giants. Once the highest-rated QB in this class, Beck has struggled on the field and could fall to the early second round. Pairing him with a bridge option like Darnold or Fields (or Drew Lock, if he impresses as a starter) could buy more time for Daboll and GM Joe Schoen, while giving Beck a chance to adapt to the NFL. Bruce Feldman has a good explanation on why Beck is falling.
Later picks to watch, with my projection:
- LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier: Returns to school.
- Texas QB Quinn Ewers: Rams.
- Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel: Steelers.
- Penn State QB Drew Allar: Returns to school.
- Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke: Jets.
- Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart: Dolphins.
- Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia: He’s suing the NCAA to return for another year. His request was denied, for now.
For more:
🎧 The latest from the The Athletic Football Show podcast: Is Lamar headed to a third MVP? Is Mike Tomlin set for his first ever Coach of the Year award? Robert and Derrik are joined by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell to hand out some midseason awards.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: The Athletic’s Week 11 Power Rankings.
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(Photo: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
