Simply put, the 2024 college football season has so far been excellent.
The two biggest games — Georgia at Alabama and Ohio State at Oregon — were thrillers, decided in the final minute. The other helmet games, generally, have delivered. USC alone has played wildly entertaining matchups against LSU, Michigan and Penn State.
There has been a healthy dose of substantial upsets, with Vanderbilt beating Alabama and Northern Illinois winning at Notre Dame atop the list.
Lastly, aside from some Pac-12/Mountain West realignment drama, and a couple of days where UNLV was the center of the NIL universe, the focus has mostly been on the field, with no early season head coach firings and limited hot seat talk outside of Gainesville.
If the second half of the season can match the first, we should be in for quite a ride.
As we assess the first half and look toward the back, here are 15 thoughts and observations:
1. The 12-team College Football Playoff has added intrigue by widening the scope of what games have postseason ramifications. Yes, the stakes of those two top-five matchups were lowered — all four teams involved remain in Austin Mock’s projected field entering Week 8 — but that didn’t detract from both becoming instant classics. In fact, a case could be made that because each game’s postseason impact has become even more nebulous early in the season, fans get a chance to bask in the moment and appreciate the great games even more instead of immediately skipping ahead to focus on CFP implications. If you were watching Oregon and Ohio State exchange the lead seven times on Saturday night in front of a frenzied crowd and thinking, “They’re just going to play again in December,” that’s on you.
Felt like this game meant a lot. pic.twitter.com/SMMMkKlXs7
— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoATH) October 13, 2024
2. When things get a little nutty early in a college football season, as they did two weeks ago when Vanderbilt’s upset of Alabama was one of five losses by AP top-11 teams, people start to draw comparisons to 2007, one of the wackiest seasons of all time.
Easy with all that. I think the trend lines are pointing in the right direction when it comes to parity in the upper levels of major college football. After about a decade of super teams dominating the four-team Playoff era, loosened transfer rules and name, image and likeness compensation seem to be thinning the depth of top teams, spreading blue-chip talent around and encouraging players to stay in school longer. Experience can counterbalance talent.
But having also lived through the last 20 years of college football, I have noticed that fans and media tend to wish for parity and chaos and then latch on to any signs that point that way early in the season. I hate being the fun police, but I still think there are only about three or four teams who can actually win a national title, and there is still a ceiling on the surprise teams.
3. Speaking of national championship contenders, I came away from Ohio State-Oregon still believing the Buckeyes can win it all, but I am going to need to see more from a defense that all the scouts and draftniks insist is loaded with early-round picks. From speaking to coaches who have faced Ohio State, the lack of a Bosa-like pass rusher and some vulnerability in the secondary could leave the Buckeyes’ defense as less than the sum of its parts. Put is this way: When your best defensive player is a safety (Caleb Downs), you might lack game changers.
4. One of my favorite things in college football is to track the arc of the surprise team, which often goes something like this: Fairly manageable early-season schedule. Win a close game or two, maybe with the benefit of some good fortune/turnover luck. Get to about 6-0, and suddenly, that team starts believing they are as good as their record, and that confidence fuels further improvement. Among this season’s first-half surprises ¯ defined as teams expected to finish near the bottom of the conference but now ranked — BYU appears to best fit this growth path. I don’t think this is a team that can pull a Playoff upset if it gets in, but quarterback Jake Retzlaff and the Cougars have a good-looking path to the Big 12 title game. “I believe in Jake as much as any quarterback I’ve ever coached,” BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said.
5. BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill’s side of the ball has taken a big leap in Year 2 under his leadership, and the former Weber State coach is expected to get a really long look to fill the opening at Utah State, which is 1-5 under interim Nate Dreiling, who walked into a difficult situation after Blake Anderson’s summer firing.
6. Another smaller category of surprise team is the we-picked-the-wrong-quarterback-coming-into-the-season team. That sort of applies to SMU, which lost to BYU in Week 3 and hasn’t since. Coach Rhett Lashlee used Kevin Jennings and Preston Stone for the first three games, but the Mustangs have taken off since settling on Jennings. With no Clemson or Miami on the schedule, SMU’s first season in the ACC could result in a trip to Charlotte for the championship game.
7. At the other end of the spectrum is the disappointing team that really isn’t much worse than it was the season before when it was winning. That’s where Kansas is living right now. The Jayhawks started the season No. 22, with high hopes for a healthy season from quarterback Jalon Daniels. Now they’re 1-5 and a cautionary tale about life as a mid-tier power conference program. The margins are thin. Kansas is currently 50th in ESPN’s SP+, right behind 4-2 Boston College and ahead of 5-1 Syracuse. The Jayhawks have lost four one-possession games. I don’t think Lance Leipold has become a worse coach, but if there is one bit of good news for Kansas, it’s that Leipold being poached is far less likely coming off a four-win season.
8. Or is he? The upcoming coaching carousel figures to be fascinating. The assumptions in the industry are that a coach of a Playoff team will not take a new job before being eliminated, and that because of the early signing period for high schoolers (Dec. 4-6) and the winter transfer portal window (which opens Dec. 9) schools can’t wait that long to make a hire.
That’s going to take some coaches out of the pool while leaving some who might look as if they have had disappointing seasons. What’s the sweet spot for a program like, say, Florida? There is already a lot of speculation about Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin being a possible — and interested — target should the Gators fire Billy Napier, but if the Rebels miss the CFP with a team that started the season ranked in the top 10, is that now a trickier sell to fans and stakeholders? Maybe at 8-4. Probably not as the first team out at 10-2. It does make me wonder whether that might shift some schools into looking at a buy-low opportunity for a coach such as Leipold, whose track record suggests this season is more about the inherent challenges at Kansas than his shortcomings.
9. Another interesting case study when it comes to this season’s hiring/firing cycle will be Arkansas. Sam Pittman has positioned himself to get another year with a 4-2 start that includes a victory against No. 11 Tennessee. The Razorbacks are undeniably better than last year, but their second-half schedule includes four teams in the latest AP Top 25: No. 8 LSU, No. 18 Ole Miss, No. 1 Texas and No. 19 Missouri. We’re creating new thresholds of success in this era. A 6-6 record with a couple of victories against Playoff contenders is far more likely to sway an administration that isn’t eager to dive into the market to keep its coach.
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10. Texas A&M did a version of the buy-low approach last season with Mike Elko, and it appears to be paying dividends for the No. 14 Aggies. Elko’s second Duke team went 7-5, a step down from 9-4 in Year 1. Still, A&M liked his previous experience as defensive coordinator at the school under Jimbo Fisher, and after an attempt to hire Kentucky’s Mark Stoops went awry, the school scooped up the New Jersey native. Elko has brought normalcy back to College Station, which has helped a pretty good roster flourish. The staff seemed to target players in the portal who would be appreciative of the opportunity to play at Texas A&M, and none have made a bigger impact than defensive end Nic Scourton, a late-bloomer from Texas who spent his first two seasons at Purdue. Scourton was selected to The Athletic’s midseason All-America team and has been a tone setter for the new staff.
“Obviously, he’s really talented, but the passion and effort he plays with has elevated our defense,” Aggies defensive coordinator Jay Bateman said. “He’s been so impactful this first year helping to establish a standard that we want to play to.”
we weren’t kidding ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/4d085NmHHC
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) October 1, 2024
11. Scourton might not have been a household name beyond the Big Ten, but he certainly wasn’t a bargain-bin transfer. But some of the most impactful transfers were the ones who didn’t draw big headlines when they committed to new schools.
Who had Kurtis Rourke of Indiana, via Ohio, leading the nation in passer rating (192.11) at the midway point for the unbeaten Hoosiers (6-0)?
Pitt running back Desmond Reid came to the Panthers from FCS Western Carolina, along with first-year offensive coordinator Kade Bell, and is second in the country in all-purpose yards at 182.6 per game.
UNLV safety Jalen Catalon is in his sixth season after injury-plagued stops at Arkansas and Texas. Finally healthy, he is second on the team in tackles (45) and tops in interceptions (four).
Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers is a former blue-chip quarterback who signed with Texas A&M in 2021 and then transferred to New Mexico State, where he competed with Diego Pavia for the starting job. Stowers switched positions last year in Las Cruces and now leads the surprising Commodores with 25 catches for 333 yards from Pavia.
12. A bold prediction for the second-half of the season that would have seemed wild after both teams lost in Week 1: The winner of No. 8 LSU at Texas A&M on Oct. 26 will make the Playoff.
The Tigers have a tricky trip to Arkansas this weekend, coming off an overtime win against Ole Miss, but both teams’ schedules set up nicely for the winner in College Station to be 10-2 with a chance to be playing in the SEC championship game.
13. Another one: The winner of Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana on Saturday will be a fringe Playoff contender deep into November.
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14. A reminder as we start forecasting how all these races could play out: There will be more upsets. Maybe not as shocking as Vandy over Alabama or NIU over Notre Dame, but even a handful of surprising results can dramatically change the landscape.
For example, while it might be tempting to pencil in a Miami-Clemson ACC championship game with both teams unbeaten in conference play, Louisville will have something to say about that the next two weeks.
15. A Group of 5 running back and a two-way player have been near the top of the Heisman Trophy leaderboards most of the first half. The question is, do Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter have staying power? I’m still skeptical because recent history says we should be. Only four non-quarterbacks have won the Heisman since 2000, and most of those have played for national title contenders.
The guess here is that quarterbacks such as Miami’s Cam Ward, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and maybe even Hunter’s teammate Shedeur Sanders seize control of the race. Keep Clemson’s rejuvenated Cade Klubnik on your radar, along with Ohio State’s Will Howard. Penn State’s Drew Allar would likely become a factor, too, if the Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes on Nov. 2 — though his teammate, versatile tight end Tyler Warren, might be the better candidate.
As for Jeanty and Hunter, if they can stay healthy (Hunter left Saturday’s loss to Kansas State with a shoulder injury but is expected to play this weekend) they should both at least be among the finalists in New York.
(Photo: Carly Mackler / Getty Images)
