Before the arrival of the salary cap, an NHL team making final roster decisions had only one thing to worry over: Keeping the 23 best players available, with (perhaps) an eye toward losing a bubble player to waivers.
That was it.
Now, cap issues have a major impact; Edmonton Oilers fans saw it in real time this week. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic covered the movement and arrived at the opening night roster ahead of time.
That isn’t an easy task with this kind of movement on the eve of Game 1:
The #LetsGoOilers called up Savoie & signed Cameron Wright for $952K. When Wright is registered tmrw, will have $53 of Cap Space. Will then put Kane on LTIR and have a capture $53 from optimal
Can send players down Wednesday & accrue space less $53.https://t.co/onpGRVAQKN
— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) October 7, 2024
Those moves were made in an effort to optimize cap room. The final move, Evander Kane to LTIR, happened on Tuesday. The Oilers are now free to accrue under the cap while also having room to wheel if LTIR becomes an issue.
Making sense of the money is one thing, but what about the roster? Expect plenty of roster shuffle. Here are some things to watch for this season.
Recalling Philp
If we’re making a list of Edmonton roster forwards who outplayed Noah Philp during preseason, it’s a very small group.
The big right-handed centre was sent to the minors to play a lot, but the current fourth line (Derek Ryan in the middle with Vasily Podkolzin and Corey Perry) lacks foot speed and could see an early dismantling if results are poor.
Edmonton currently projects to deploy just 12 forwards on opening night, meaning any injury or illness would force a call to the minors. It’s an untenable situation and Philp is the only possible answer if a need arises. No one projected onto the minor-league roster was anywhere close to his performance in preseason. It’s a good bet Philp plays an NHL game before Halloween.
Procurement
The job Philp will take should be the one 2021 first-round selection Xavier Bourgault is claiming with the team. Instead, Bourgault was dealt over the summer and it’s Philp who represents the next significant recall from the farm.
First-round selections don’t always cash, that’s a universal problem across the NHL.
The lesson to be learned here isn’t about Bourgault, it’s about Philp. The Oilers found him playing college hockey in the organization’s own backyard. Are there more such players in Canadian college hockey? For a team that’s going to trade draft picks, this should be an area for management to investigate.
Recalling Brown
The signing of Travis Dermott on Tuesday would seem to block veteran Josh Brown.
However, chances are the club will see a need for a physical defender at times during the season, and injuries will mean recalls from the AHL Bakersfield Condors. Brown remains a unique player on Edmonton’s pro roster, and that fact puts him in line for a recall.
Other Condors defencemen who might see action include Ben Gleason (who was recalled last season by the Oilers and didn’t play) and Phil Kemp, who played in his first NHL game one year ago.
Veteran scoring winger Jeff Skinner was very quiet during preseason and found himself on the third line during practice early in the week. Fans shouldn’t worry about him, he’s a goal scorer and didn’t forget how to do it over the summer.
It may take time for Skinner to develop chem with Leon Draisaitl on the second line, but it will come. Skinner is an early favourite for most valuable value contract among this summer’s free agents. He doesn’t cost much at all, considering his role and projected production.
The real story in that line shuffle was Mattias Janmark.
In spite of being consistently overlooked by fans, Janmark’s utility is a strength for the team. He can move up and down the lineup, brings some edge to each shift and (this might shock some fans) owns above average top skating speed and burst speed, according to NHL Edge.
He led the Oilers in ice time per game on the penalty kill, via Natural Stat Trick, a year ago, and he was highly effective in the role.
The analytics on Emberson from his half-season with the San Jose Sharks indicate the Oilers might have a real solution at right-handed defence. The fall eye test seems to confirm the math.
Right-handed blueliners are unicorns for NHL teams, owing to a shortage at the position. The industry decided long ago that “sticks along the boards” was the right thing to do, and now it’s quite rare to see any of the 32 clubs in the league employ more than one lefty playing the right side.
I looked at Emberson after the trade and found an intriguing resume. Quoting the article “Puck IQ is a pure math site with zero emotion, but the math adores Emberson’s work in 2023-24.”
What we’ve seen so far from Emberson (small sample alert) is an effective five-on-five player (70 percent expected goals during preseason, via Natural Stat Trick) and a capable puck passer.
That’s key if he’s to flourish with veteran Darnell Nurse on the second pairing.
Among the new hires on this team, Emberson is the most important. The club can find replacements for holes up front, but badly need two pairings it can count on versus elite competition.
Emberson could save this organization millions of dollars and myriad draft picks exiting at the deadline if he can contribute in his projected role.
Bottom line
Expect fluidity on this roster, both in shuffling of lines/pairings and in recalls.
The shuffle of Skinner and Janmark at Monday’s practice drew plenty of attention, but that should be the expectation.
There are eight new faces on this team since this time last year: Emberson, Dermott, Skinner, Podkolzin, Perry, Viktor Arvidsson, Calvin Pickard and Adam Henrique.
There are going to be injuries and slumps, with names like Philp, Josh Brown and even Matt Savoie possibly finding their way to Edmonton.
This is not your ordinary Stanley Cup finalist. Expect change.
(Photo of Ty Emberson: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
