The Miami Heat have a paint problem.
Miami almost had a perfect Thanksgiving weekend before its 119-116 loss to the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. A win would’ve granted the Heat (9-9) their longest win streak of the season, but a seemingly chronic team issue undid their efforts and could be the deciding factor in the team’s climb up the Eastern Conference standings.
Despite winning two of their last three games, the Heat were outscored 160-116 on points scored in the paint over the weekend. The Raptors outdid them in this category 68-46 on Sunday after entering the game ranked second in the league in paint points. Miami ranks only 26th in paint points and hasn’t finished within the top 20 since 2018-19. Even in an era focused on teams shooting plenty of 3-pointers, yielding — and struggling to score — easy buckets on a consistent basis will require resistance at some point, especially for Miami to make a playoff run.
The East standings are starting to take clearer shape. The Orlando Magic (15-7) have the NBA’s fifth-best record since Paolo Banchero went down with injury. The New York Knicks (12-8) sport the NBA’s best offense and rank sixth in net rating (plus-6.5). And the Milwaukee Bucks? They started 2-8 but are now 10-9 and sit a half-game ahead of Miami. Even the Atlanta Hawks (10-11) have won three consecutive games and sit only a half-game behind the Heat. Sitting sixth in the East means the Heat are one spot above being relegated to the Play-In Tournament for the third consecutive season. The bar must be higher, but it’s also easier said than done.
“I mean, considering we all don’t play one side of the ball, it’s one of those things where that side of the ball actually matters to winning — it contributes to winning,” Bam Adebayo said Sunday about Miami’s collective defensive effort. “Defense wins championships. And we can’t get over that hump unless we all buy into getting back in transition, doing the little detailed stuff on that end.”
Beyond defending opponents’ interior scoring, the Heat need sounder offensive balance while maintaining their standing as one the league’s best 3-point shooting teams. While Miami has struggled to score from the interior, getting to that area of the court — and creating sound shots — is hardly the issue. The Heat entered Monday ranked seventh among all teams in drives (51.4) and ninth in 3-point attempts per game. On those drive attempts, though, they’re scoring on only 55.5 percent of them, which ranks 17th in the NBA. Most of those drives into the paint often (and rightfully) become 3-point attempts in today’s league, but the math doesn’t end in one’s favor without getting easier shots to balance out ambitious long-range shots, especially against hungry teams seeking efficient looks.
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have noted that Miami needs to begin games with better energy and effort to avoid early holes. Anything less is a recipe for teams to catch an early rhythm and force the Heat to play catch-up, which is less than ideal with seven clutch-time losses in 11 such opportunities this season (Our usual reminder: Clutch-time entails a game’s final five minutes with the score within five points). To agree with the point Butler and Herro made about early holes, the Heat have a first-quarter net rating of minus-8.6. Of the five teams with a worse figure, only the 11-10 San Antonio Spurs (minus-13.1) have a winning record.
Miami’s issues with interior scoring and consistent rebounding could be the difference between floating around .500 for the season or finding a new gear. Those issues are impacted by the team’s collective size just as much as energy and effort, but complaining about roster issues is tough in today’s NBA. The league’s newly implemented second apron effectively limits teams to a $188.9 million hard cap for rosters; Miami has the league’s ninth-highest payroll and fourth-oldest roster. Barring a monumental shift in roster construction, no seismic trade to solve Miami’s issues is imminent. The Heat currently sit outside the top 20 in rebound rate (48.8 percent, 22nd in NBA) and have outscored opponents from the paint only six times in their 18 games. Shooting 3s can be fun and all, but Miami will simply need to better control pace to better control a full game and to maintain command of its season.
The team hasn’t been over .500 since Nov. 2 but faces credible measuring sticks with upcoming matchups against the defending champion Boston Celtics (16-4), Los Angeles Lakers (12-8), Phoenix Suns (11-8), Cleveland Cavaliers (18-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (15-5). An upcoming four-game homestand is also timely for the Heat, who won’t have another such stretch this long until the end of February.
Where will the team sit in the East standings by then? That remains to be seen (it’s only Dec. 2, after all), but Adebayo remains confident the Heat will adjust and be confident as their schedule toughens. Hopefully some home cooking could help the Heat find their own rhythm with easier shots and sounder defense to better tip close contests in their favor.
“You can’t hide,” Adebayo said. “That’s the thing I love about the NBA. You gonna play people. You gonna play the good teams. You gonna play the bad teams. And then, you see where you are.”
(Top photo: Andrew Lahodynskyj / Getty Images )
