The intensity of the NFL playoffs always seems to heighten for the divisional round. The top seeds are coming off their bye weeks, and the bracket comes into focus after the re-seeding following the wild-card round. Each of these teams now fully believes it belongs in its conference championship game, and they’re all just one step away.
It’s shaping up to be a heck of a weekend, too. All four home teams are viewed as bona fide Super Bowl contenders, but the quartet of road teams should be confident enough to pull off an upset after impressive showings in their postseason openers.
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Like last week, The Athletic polled a panel of coaches and personnel executives to get their weekly playoff predictions. Picks were not taken if a voter’s team was involved in that particular game.
No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Chiefs 9, Texans 0
This result wasn’t surprising. Patrick Mahomes has won 20 of his past 21 starts, and he’s been victorious in his past seven playoff games.
Pick against the Chiefs at your own peril. One executive called this an “inevitable three-peat.”
The Chiefs aren’t just winning at an all-time clip. They also refuse to beat themselves, evidenced by winning 16 consecutive games decided by one possession.
“For the Texans to win, they’ll need some uncharacteristic mistakes,” a coach said.
It’s a bad day to count on some uncharacteristic mistakes. The Chiefs’ 14 turnovers this season were tied for the fourth-fewest in the league, with Mahomes’ 11 interceptions taking up the brunt of those. Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 17 against the Bills, and he’s never thrown a pick in the divisional round in his career.
And he’s paired with a head coach in Andy Reid who is trying to win his 300th game.
“I think he’s the best coach in history,” another executive said. “I really do.”
The Chiefs have beaten the Texans four times in a row, including 27-19 last month. They’re 2-0 against the Texans in the postseason, winning the pair of matchups by a combined 50 points. And if history could be any more unpleasant to the Texans, they’re also 0-5 in the divisional round.
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The Texans will need to be relentless on defense. They tallied four sacks and four interceptions against quarterback Justin Herbert last week in their unexpected, 32-12 blowout of the Los Angeles Chargers, and there’s reason to believe edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter can expose the Chiefs’ tackles to hit Mahomes.
That’s still only half the battle, though. Quarterback C.J. Stroud needs to play a clean game and most certainly can’t expect to throw two interceptions — like he did a month ago — and steal a win at Arrowhead. He’ll need help from running back Joe Mixon, too.
Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pass since Christmas, so it’s paramount for the Texans to start fast to try to expose the Chiefs’ rust. This is the fourth time the Chiefs have claimed the No. 1 seed during the Mahomes era, but it’s just the second such occasion when they clinched early enough to rest their starters in the regular-season finale. The other time was in 2020, and they came off the bye to beat the Cleveland Browns, 22-17 — their narrowest playoff-opening victory of Mahomes’ career.
While the panel was unanimous in their selection, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest this game will still be tight in the fourth quarter.
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Saturday
Expert picks: Lions 8, Commanders 0
It’s another clean sweep from the panel.
“They’ve had two weeks to prepare,” an executive said. “I don’t see (coach) Dan Campbell letting them come out flat. They’re going to be physical. They’re going to run the ball and fly around at home in that dome. They’ll be hard to beat there, with a ton of energy.”
The Lions deserve credit for transforming from a fun group of up-and-comers in 2023 into a juggernaut that withstood the weekly hunt in 2024. They immediately established themselves among the elite, matched the Chiefs with the best record in the league and finished first in points scored (the first time the franchise has done that in 50 years) and seventh in points allowed. They also outscored their opponents by a league-best 222 points.
“The Lions are the best team in football right now,” a coach said.
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If there’s an unknown element, it’s how the Lions will fare after dealing with a rash of injuries throughout the season. They appeared to answer that test resoundingly in the season finale against the Minnesota Vikings.
Maybe the Commanders aren’t in the Lions’ class but don’t tell them that. They have a new face in every prominent corner of the organization and just won their first playoff game in 19 years, as Jayden Daniels led an offense that didn’t punt or turn it over in their walk-off win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Daniels is composed well beyond his years and seems to look even more comfortable with a game on the line. The raucous atmosphere in Detroit probably won’t bother him.
But this isn’t a quarterback competition. The Lions also boast a massive offensive line and physical running game.
“I can see it being high scoring, but I think Detroit pulls away in the second half,” another coach said.
Experience will matter. The Lions won a couple of postseason games last year and were 6-2 against playoff opponents this season. The Commanders were 2-4 against playoff teams, including the win in Tampa.
Washington is 3-0 in the playoffs against Detroit, but the teams haven’t met in the postseason in 25 years.
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley gashed the Rams for 255 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in late November. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Eagles 8, Rams 1
Sean McVay can seemingly do no wrong.
The Rams coach rested his stars in the season finale, dropping a spot in the standings but shellacking the Vikings regardless. McVay believed in his team more than he cared about the opponent, and that’s the mark of a dangerous group.
It didn’t sway the voters, though.
“I think it’s going to be a replay of the (Eagles’) regular-season win against the Rams where they struggle to stop the run,” an executive said. “It’s a huge offensive line, and (the Rams are) small inside.”
The Eagles rushed for 314 yards in their 37-20 road victory against the Rams in Week 12. It was the second-most rushing yards by any team in a game this season. Running back Saquon Barkley piled up 255 rushing yards, 47 receiving yards and two touchdowns in that outing.
It frequently comes down to turnovers with the Eagles, too. They had eight giveaways during their 2-2 start but have only turned it over seven times in their last 14 games (counting Sunday’s playoff win over the Packers), including three in a row without a giveaway.
“It will come down to the Eagles being able to run the ball,” a coach said. “If the Rams can stop the run, they have a legit shot to win the game.”
The thing is, the Eagles run it well against everyone. They tallied 186 rushing yards in a Week 2 loss to the Atlanta Falcons and 211 yards on the ground in their Week 16 loss to the Commanders. So they are beatable even when the ground game is humming.
For the Rams to overcome these hurdles, along with the outdoor weather elements in Philly, they’ll need quarterback Matthew Stafford to be at his best and their young defense to pick up where it left off after racking up nine sacks and two takeaways in a 27-9 drubbing of the Vikings.
The Rams defense is fast, relentless and fearless.
“It will be a good game,” another executive said. “Stafford gets the ball out so quickly that it will minimize Philly’s defensive line. Can the Rams slow down Barkley? Their defense is playing well, and it will be fun to watch.”
Another coach added, “I love Stafford as an equalizer. But if Eagles QB Jalen Hurts takes care of it, I think they’re too deep and talented.”
The Eagles have knocked off the Rams in back-to-back regular-season meetings. The Rams are 2-1 against the hosts in the playoffs, but they haven’t met on this stage in 23 years.
No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Expert picks: Ravens 6, Bills 3
The divisional round will close down with an epic matchup. This will be a legacy-defining game if the winner goes on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
“Bills-Ravens is the game of the year,” an executive said. “I can’t wait to watch.”
The Ravens stomped the visiting Bills, 35-10, in Week 4. While the margin of victory is impossible to ignore, it was such an uncharacteristic way for the Bills to lose that it could just be written off as a bad day.
Or at least, the Bills will attempt to prove that point.
“There is reason to be concerned about the lack of speed on defense against the Ravens skill players,” an executive who picked the Bills said. “But Josh Allen is playing at such a high level right now at home with that crowd. I think that’s going to be a hell of a game.”
Allen and Lamar Jackson, the MVP favorites, each delivered monster seasons.
Jackson notched career bests with 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns and four interceptions (among full seasons as the starter). He added 915 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and he led the league in yards per carry (6.6) for the fourth time in six seasons.
Allen, who led the Bills to wins against the Chiefs and Lions, threw for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. He tallied his fewest yards and TDs since 2019, but his eradication of interceptions — a third of his 2023 total — was a major step forward. He added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
They’re both playing at such a big-time level that punts could be the equivalent of turnovers in this meeting.
“It will come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes,” another coach said. “I think Baltimore on paper is the better team, but Buffalo’s defense has always done a good job of playing disciplined in the playoffs.”
Amazingly, both quarterbacks have monopolized the spotlight to the point where their star running backs have been somewhat overshadowed. Derrick Henry and James Cook tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns. Henry provided a different gear for the Ravens, though, contributing 1,921 rushing yards for the team with the best ground attack in the league. Cook had 1,009 yards.
“(Baltimore is) playing so well right now,” a third coach said. “Better run game. Better, more complete defense. Better kicker. If Lamar takes care of (the ball), I think they’re too deep and win because they’re a better overall football team.”
A fourth coach added, “The Bills will play better than earlier in the season, but the Ravens will out-physical them. The run game will be the difference.”
(Illustration: Will Tulos / The Athletic; photos: Joe Sargent, Brooke Sutton and Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
