Super Bowl MVP odds are narrowing as players from only four remaining teams have a shot at the crown. But it’s not all quarterbacks at the top, with Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley favored over his signal caller, Jalen Hurts.
Quarterbacks dominated the MVP discussion during the regular season and the focus remains on QBs in the battle for the Pete Rozelle Trophy, with the men under center earning 33 out of 59 MVP awards during Super Bowl history — including 13 wins in the last 20 years.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen are currently tied atop the BetMGM odds board (+275 each). But there are other intriguing options available — particularly if the NFC wins the Super Bowl.
Can anyone unseat the elite AFC quarterbacks for Super Bowl MVP honors? Can Barkley become the first non-quarterback Super Bowl MVP in nearly three decades?
Super Bowl MVP odds
Quarterbacks stay the focus
In a quest to win a third straight Super Bowl, Kansas City and Mahomes have an easy narrative to follow. Seeking his fourth Super Bowl MVP overall, a win in 2025 would make Mahomes the only player in NFL history to win in three consecutive years.
Mahomes put up modest regular-season numbers for his lofty standards — finishing outside the top five among QBs in passing yards and touchdowns. This year’s Chiefs aren’t the offensive juggernaut of some past championship seasons — scoring 30 points only twice all season. Despite those numbers, Mahomes remains a premier playmaker with a penchant for winning when it counts most.
Standing in the way of the Chiefs and Mahomes in the AFC are the Bills and Allen. Consistently linked with Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson atop the MVP discussion during the regular season, Allen is in the mix with Mahomes for Super Bowl MVP.
If the Bills can finally overcome the Chiefs after three straight postseason losses at their hands, Allen becomes the clear Super Bowl MVP frontrunner.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City is favored by a few points over Buffalo in the AFC Championship game with the Chiefs (+200) also owning better Super Bowl odds than the Bills (+260).
Of course, the NFC can’t be forgotten. Both Hurts (+500) and Washington Commanders rookie sensation Jayden Daniels (+850) are involved after both delivered strong MVP campaigns during the regular season.
With one of these two signal callers guaranteed to play in the Super Bowl, there is value in the NFC quarterbacks compared to their AFC counterparts.
Hurts has to overcome a knee injury suffered during the Rams win that could impact his postseason status. He’s also been more of a game manager during Philadelphia’s postseason run, having passed for only 259 total yards across two wins.
The odds are low for Daniels in part because Washington is a clear underdog in both the NFC Championship game and a hypothetical Super Bowl matchup. Daniels’ odds for Super Bowl MVP currently match Washington’s odds to win the Super Bowl (+850) at BetMGM.
Can a running back break the MVP drought?
Running backs have failed to win a Super Bowl MVP during the last two decades. Only seven running backs have even won the award in the first place — with Denver Broncos lead back Terrell Davis the last running back to win in 1998.
Sitting behind only Mahomes and Allen on the odds board, Eagles star Saquon Barkley (+400) could end the running back drought.
On the heels of the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history, Barkley extended his regular-season dominance into the postseason with memorable performances in wins over the Packers and Rams. Prior playoff games aren’t factored into the Super Bowl MVP equation. But Barkley looks unstoppable so far for an Eagles offense that is happy to force-feed him the ball.
If Barkley earns another 100-yard rushing game with multiple touchdowns during a Super Bowl win, it would cap one of the best running back seasons in NFL history — which might be enough to finally give a rusher the award.
Bills running back James Cook (+6000) is the next highest running back on the board. Following a 1,000-yard regular season, Cook started the playoffs with 120 rushing yards in Buffalo’s win over Denver. Cook owns four 100-yard rushing games since the start of December and could present solid value if Buffalo outlasts Kansas City and makes the Super Bowl.
Pass catchers offer another option
Wide receivers have won five of the last 20 Super Bowl MVPs. Pass catchers present perhaps the only conceivable alternative to quarterbacks winning this award.
A late-season resurgence has seen Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce (+2500) average 7.5 catches, 100.5 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. Kelce is tops among pass catchers in the odds despite a tight end never winning Super Bowl MVP.
Philadelphia’s dynamic wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown (+3000) and DeVonta Smith (+6600) are next among the group. With Hurts handling a knee injury and Barkley hot during the playoffs, Brown and Smith only have 100 receiving yards combined across two games this postseason.
Tight end Dallas Goedert is tied for the team lead in postseason targets with Brown (10) while having more than Smith (eight). Picking Brown and Smith would represent Hurts finding his way in the passing game while the Eagles alter game plans away from the running game.
The next tier of receivers includes Kansas City rookie Xavier Worthy (+8000) and Commanders star wideout Terry McLaurin (+10000). Worthy delivered average results in his playoff debut but was targeted 31 times over his final three regular season games — developing notable chemistry with Mahomes.
McLaurin is averaging 5.5 catches, 88 receiving yards and a touchdown during two Commanders postseason wins. The talent and production are conceivable for McLaurin to win. Similar to Daniels, McLaurin’s odds are so low because of Washington’s underdog status.
Are defensive players worth it?
Two defensive players currently rank among the top 14 Super Bowl MVP candidates. A pair of dominant defensive tackles, Chiefs’ veteran Chris Jones and Eagles disruptor Jalen Carter, have +10000 odds to win.
It isn’t unheard of for defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP. It has happened 10 times before, but only two defenders won over the last 20 years — both of them linebackers.
A defensive tackle like Jones or Carter needs a high-sack performance in a low-scoring game to merit serious consideration.
Hall of Fame Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Randy White is the only interior lineman to win a Super Bowl MVP when he was co-MVP with teammate and defensive end Harvey Martin in 1978.
(Photo of Saquon Barkley: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
