Trending 📉 📈 after NFL’s Week 15, as the Bills, Packers roll

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Today, we’re looking at the latest on Patrick Mahomes’ ankle, Darnold’s improvement and tonight’s doubleheader. First, let’s quickly unpack a busy Sunday by looking at the risers:

📈 Trending up

The NFL MVP award is now a two-horse race after Saquon Barkley’s quiet game (65 yards) likely ended his MVP candidacy.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen remains the frontrunner. His Bills (11-3) had 559 yards and six touchdowns in their 48-42 win over the NFC-leading Lions (12-2). It was one of the best games of the year (we’ll talk about Dan Campbell’s onside kick decision tomorrow), during which Allen’s EPA per play ranked in the 99th percentile.

There’s no better quarterback right now than Allen, who has reached another level the past two weeks (704 passing yards, 10 total TDs and no turnovers). His teammates are in awe.

Still, there’s a strong case for Jackson’s MVP candidacy, as he won the head-to-head matchup and somehow has even better numbers:

Jackson also strengthened his case yesterday, throwing more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four) in a 35-14 blowout against the Giants (2-12).

But Jackson’s statistical lead is shrinking, and wins matter to voters — maybe more than they should. Jackson trails Allen in that category. Considering Allen’s recent play, and comparing Buffalo’s remaining schedule (Patriots x2, Jets) to the Ravens’ (Steelers, Texans, Browns), the MVP award looks like Allen’s to lose.

Other risers:

📈 Buccaneers (8-6). Their 40-17 road blowout over the Chargers (now 8-6) confirmed Tampa Bay as the NFL’s best dark-horse contender. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans (159 yards and two TDs) carved up the league’s top-ranked defense for over 500 yards. Remember: Tampa Bay has also beaten the Lions and Eagles and narrowly lost to the Chiefs (13-1) in overtime.

📈 Eagles (12-2). Philly’s biggest weakness was addressed during its 10th-straight win, as Jalen Hurts and the passing game responded with a season-high 290 yards and two TDs against the Steelers’ vaunted defense. The Eagles, now tied with Detroit for the NFC lead, hold a 40 percent chance of earning the first-round bye, per the New York Times’ simulator.

📈 Head-shaking. DeSean Jackson’s 2009 1-yard-line drop comes to mind whenever another player inexplicably repeats the mistake, but the unforgivable has been happening since Steelers TE Dave Smith did something similar in 1971. Yesterday, we saw two of them in one day!

The first drop changed the trajectory of the Colts’ season (6-8), as a Jonathan Taylor touchdown would’ve given Indy a 20-7 lead over the Broncos in the early third quarter. Instead, the play foreshadowed the implosion to come:

In the fourth-quarter, their disastrous trick play (while trailing 17-13) felt like the final nail. They lost 31-13, and their playoff odds plummeted to just 14 percent.

NIK BONITTO INTERCEPTS THE COLTS TRICK PLAY AND TAKES IT BACK FOR 6. WOW. pic.twitter.com/Ee3fsUl2iB

— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 15, 2024

(Meanwhile, the Broncos (9-5) will have their first winning record since 2016 and are just one win away from clinching a playoff berth.)

The second drop epitomized the Bengals defense, as DB Jordan Battle dropped a walk-in touchdown before the ball rolled through the back of the end zone for a touchback.

Oh no Bengals 😳

A fumble through the back of the end zone takes a TD off the board for Cincinnati.

🎥 @NFLonFOXpic.twitter.com/wfp23p2ySY

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 15, 2024

Cincinnati (6-8) survived that and the rest of the weirdest game of the season, winning 37-27 over the Titans (3-11).

📈 Never listing the Panthers (3-11) as favorites. Carolina was favored for the first time in two years, and Bryce Young had four turnovers as the Cowboys (6-8) dominated, winning 30-14.

📈 Texans (9-5). Their defense deserves credit for the 20-12 win over Miami (6-8), especially third-year corner Derek Stingley Jr., who locked up Tyreek Hill (one catch on six targets in coverage) and had two interceptions, including this game-clinching grab.

STINGLEY AGAIN. HIS SECOND INT CALLS GAME. #MIAvsHOU pic.twitter.com/Hv7QYO4axE

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Houston’s win plus the Colts loss was enough to end the division race. The only remaining AFC division up for grabs is the North, which sees the Steelers and Ravens face off next Saturday afternoon.

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

📈 Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. It’s simple. Just give the Jets a weekly matchup against the worst passing defense. Yesterday, Jacksonville watched as Rodgers (289 yards and three TDs) and Adams (198 yards and two TDs) bought themselves runway for 2025. Sauce Gardner’s first INT of the season clinched a 32-25 victory for the Jets (4-10).

📈 Injuries in Detroit. Their medical staff deserves a “Hard Knocks” series after adding star DT Alim McNeill (knee) and CB Carlton Davis (concussion) to a long list of defensive players unlikely to return this season.

📈 Despite the 20-19 win over the Saints (5-9), there are plenty of questions in Washington (9-5).

📈 NFC West race. The Rams (8-6), Seahawks (8-6), Cardinals (7-7) and 49ers (6-8) make for the tightest divisional race. Only McVay’s Rams, winners of seven of their last nine, are currently in the playoff picture.

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

In a gift from the scheduling gods, L.A. hosts Seattle in the regular-season finale.

📈 Green Bay’s defense. Last year’s unit struggled to stop the run (28th in rushing yards allowed) and forced just 18 turnovers. Under new DC Jeff Hafley, they’ve fixed both; the Packers are ninth in rushing yards allowed and on pace to nearly double their takeaways (32). But yesterday’s win was all about their pass rush, which had seven sacks, 12 QB hits and a pressure rate of 45.2 as the Packers (now 10-4) bullied the Seahawks (8-6) in Seattle. Final score: 30-13.

📈 Worry in Kansas City (13-1). They finally won a game by a normal margin, but the Chiefs’ 21-7 victory over the Browns was overshadowed by the departure of Patrick Mahomes. Dianna has the latest below.

What Dianna’s Hearing: Mahomes’ ankle will be tested soon enough

Patrick Mahomes limped to the sideline midway through the fourth quarter in Cleveland, and when the Chiefs offense returned to the field with a little more than five minutes left and a 14-point lead, Carson Wentz was behind center.

I’m told it’s a high ankle sprain for Mahomes — X-rays came back negative. A team source thinks he’ll be fine going forward, but we’re about to find out, as Kansas City plays two games in the next 10 days (against the Texans on Saturday and in Pittsburgh on Christmas the following Wednesday).

Mahomes’ late-game scrambling has been crucial for the Chiefs. Will that continue? We’ll see.

Back to you, Jacob.

CPOY  🏆: Or is it the most-improved award?

Tonight, Sam Darnold begins his Week 15 matchup in Chicago ranked sixth in NFL MVP voting. His biggest improvement might surprise you.

In prior years, he’d also be a stronger candidate for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. But after Damar Hamlin’s unparalleled return was not enough to top Joe Flacco’s 2023, the Associated Press — which has given the award annually since 1998 — issued guidance that the spirit of the award is:

“To honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

A brief look at history suggests that this guidance could reorient the award, and it could cut out players like Darnold, since “seeing ghosts in 2019” likely does not qualify as a prior illness or physical injury.

The AP also can’t be certain everyone is listening to its guidance. Sure, Joe Burrow — again returning from a significant injury — leads BetMGM odds for CPOY, but Darnold ranks second, followed by Kyler Murray. Both ended last season healthy.

Tonight’s Doubleheader

Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2). Minnesota is debuting beautiful Winter Warrior uniforms, has a six-game winning streak and is a seven-point favorite over the visiting Bears at 8 p.m. ET (ABC). It’s a battle between teams heading in opposite directions, as Chicago hasn’t won in over two months.

Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11). Las Vegas will be without star DE Maxx Crosby, who is undergoing season-ending ankle surgery. They’re also starting former Falcons QB Desmond Ridder, and are projected to lose to Atlanta by 5.5 points. This game starts at 8:30 p.m. (ESPN).

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(Photo: Luke Hales, Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)