The groans were loud after Patriots head coach Jarad Mayo announced he would start rookie quarterback Drake Maye after initially sitting him from Weeks 1-5. The bemoaning came from stupid analysts like me who thought the idea of sitting Maye in the first place was so that he didn’t develop bad habits and get shell-shocked playing behind the Patriots’ porous pass protection. Why back down on that idea now? We’ve seen supremely talented quarterbacks start dropping their eyes to the pass rush, drift and throw off their back foot playing behind leaky offensive lines.
The fear was it could happen to Maye, who needed to clean up his footwork coming out of North Carolina. However, Drake has excelled through the pressure. He’s elevated the Patriots offense from among the worst in the league into a viable one and he might end up being the most impressive rookie in his class if he keeps improving at the rate that he is now.
| Weeks 1-5 (rank) | Weeks 6-11 (rank) | |
|---|---|---|
|
Explosive play rate |
8.8% (26th) |
9% (28th) |
|
EPA per play |
-1.9 (29th) |
-0.05 (20th) |
|
Points per drive |
1.17 (31st) |
1.85 (21st) |
|
Success rate |
40.3% (26th) |
44.7% (18th) |
|
Man coverage faced |
33.3% (3rd) |
26.5% (16th) |
Maye has lifted the Patriots in several statistical categories with mostly the same cast. They’ve jumped up 10 spots in points per drive (an increase of 0.7), nine spots in expected points added per play and eight spots in success rate per play. The Patriots haven’t increased their explosive play rate much but that has to do more with their lack of elite weapons outside.
GO DEEPER
11 stats that tell the story of Drake Maye’s hot start
Defenses weren’t afraid of playing man against the Patriots receivers. In Jacoby Brissett’s starts, they faced man coverage on 33.3 percent of snaps (third-most in the league), but Maye’s scrambling ability has changed that. Maye’s scramble rate (11.2 percent) is only second to Jayden Daniels, and despite only starting five games, he already ranks fourth in total EPA on scrambles (21.82) behind only Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. As a result, defenses have been more weary of playing man against the Patriots. In Maye’s starts, the Patriots have only faced man on 26.7 percent of dropbacks (16th in the league).
DRAKE MAYE. 17-yard rushing TD for the rookie!
📺: #NYJvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/QCLpeTf9xG— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
Maye’s footwork got sloppy in college at North Carolina from dealing with constant pressure, leading to some accuracy issues. So far as a pro, his feet and base have looked cleaner and he’s been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. He ranks seventh-best in off-target rate (13.8 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
Week 11, 5:33 remaining in the first quarter, second-and-6
On this touchdown pass to Kendrick Bourne against the Rams, the Patriots had two in-breaking routes with the running back on a swing.
Maye read the coverage and saw two defenders jump the back in the flats, so he knew he had a void in the middle of the field to throw to.
As he hit the last step of his drop, he angled his back foot to his target with a wide base and his knees bent, so he was ready to transfer his weight efficiently.
He hit the last step of his drop and fired a perfectly placed bullet into Bourne.
Kendrick Bourne is back for the @Patriots!
📺: #LARvsNE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/cuQS1SZ7WG— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024
There were times in college when he drifted too much, often out of necessity. He knew where pressure or the blitz were coming from and he would drift away from it to create space for his passes. One of his best abilities is throwing accurately without a platform — that ability has been invaluable in the NFL.
In this clip, he knew he would have free rushers coming from his right, drifted away, but still threw an accurate pass to his hot route.
Week 11, 7:42 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-7
On third-and-7, against the Rams, Maye motioned running back Antonio Gibson outside to undress the coverage. Safety Jaylen McCollough followed Gibson outside instead of a linebacker, confirming to Maye that both linebackers would rush.
Maye motioned Gibson back so they would have each defender accounted for with the center sliding toward the right.
After the snap, Michael Hoecht rushed up the guard to occupy him before backing off into coverage. Gibson picked up safety Cam Kurl but McCollough added on to the blitz when he saw Gibson stay in to block, giving the Rams a free rusher.
Maye knew he had to drift away from the blitz but also had to wait for receiver DeMario Douglas to get past Hoecht’s zone.
Maye drifted right but still hit Douglas in stride going in the opposite direction while getting hit. His film is littered with clips of him staying strong in the pocket, avoiding pressure and still throwing accurately downfield. Maye ranks 10th in EPA per dropback when blitzed.
Another @popshotta3 highlight for you ⬇️
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/H53AFHxUN0
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 17, 2024
And then there are the big-time throws. Maye’s receivers struggle with separation, but he’s been able to complete some spectacular downfield passes because of pure arm talent.
Week 10, 11:45 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10
Against the Bears, the Patriots had a scissors concept called with tight end Austin Hooper running a corner route. Hooper ran a 4.72 40-yard dash, but that was eight years ago.
It took some time for Hooper to get downfield and he didn’t create much separation against nickel Kyler Gordon. He was, by definition, covered with Gordon playing him tight with outside leverage when Maye threw.
Maye placed the ball perfectly over Gordon’s head, in a spot in which the defender didn’t have a chance to make a play on the ball.
Douglas is the Patriots’ best separator. According to Fantasy Pro’s average separation score, among receivers with at least 50 routes run, Douglas ranks 35th. The next Patriots receiver in the ranking is Ja’Lynn Polk, who ranks 59th. According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots’ offensive line is last in pass block efficiency, which measures pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with a weighting toward sacks allowed. Despite his circumstances, Maye is thriving and already doing a quarterback’s most important but difficult job: elevating the play of the players around him. His numbers may not reflect it, but he could end up having one of the most impressive rookie seasons in a very talented quarterback class.
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(Top photo: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
