Mike Vrabel’s first NFL Draft at the helm of the New England Patriots is just a few hours away. He has already revamped the team’s defense with a free-agent spending spree and now seeks broader improvements for a franchise that has won just four games in back-to-back years.
But while certain things remain unclear about the Patriots’ plan, it’s important to emphasize what Vrabel has already told us publicly. He plans to build this team through the trenches and has hinted at (if not promised) a transformed roster, which could lead to a trade or two in the coming days. Even if the fourth pick seems like a foregone conclusion, there is still a lot of intrigue around the Pats in the coming days.
Here’s a look at what we’re hearing about the Patriots in the draft.
Will Campbell at No. 4
It’s rare that a player is so pigeonholed as the No. 4 pick in a draft given how much is in flux — namely, the first three picks.
But it’s hard to find people around the league who don’t think Campbell is headed to the Patriots. At this point, any other pick would be shocking (barring Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter falling into their laps).
The logic behind Campbell is this: While his ceiling at left tackle isn’t as high as some other available players at their positions, Campbell is solid and safe. If he’s not a good left tackle, he’ll probably be a good left guard. So for a Patriots team that doesn’t have many good players, this is a safe bet to net a solid pro, ideally letting them take the bigger swing next year on a player with a more boom-or-bust profile.
We’ll spare you further discussion over his arm length and wingspan, but Campbell checks a lot of the boxes for Vrabel. Coaches rave about Campbell off the field and the culture he could help set. He plays a nasty brand of football. And he’s solid and accountable. All things Vrabel is looking for to jump-start this rebuild.
So that’s why all signs are pointing toward Campbell being the guy for New England at No. 4.
Still … there’s interest in moving back
Much of the above rides on the assumption that the Patriots can’t trade back from No. 4. For a fair deal, they’d love to move back. They have a lot of needs, which more draft picks could help address, and this is a draft where, after the first three picks, the next group of 15 or so players is largely interchangeable according to most scouts. So that’s why the Patriots would be interested in moving back: getting a similarly-rated player plus additional bites at the draft apple.
The problem is that two league sources expressed skepticism that anyone makes the Pats what they’d deem to be a fair offer for the No. 4 pick. So they’ll likely have to stick and pick.
Boutte on the move?
As multiple others have reported, Kayshon Boutte has come up in trade talks with the Patriots, according to a league source. While that could seem surprising on the surface, here’s why the Pats could move him (or another receiver).
The Patriots already have six wide receivers penciled in to make the team next season: Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, Kendrick Bourne and Boutte. (And that makes no mention of Javon Baker.) Teams almost never keep more than six wide receivers on their 53-man roster. So if the Pats want to draft a wide receiver this weekend, it would make sense to move someone. And the other options either aren’t on the market (Diggs, Hollins) or wouldn’t fetch much in return (Polk, Bourne, Douglas).
So Boutte could be headed elsewhere to make room for a new draft pick, or the training camp competition for the No. 6 spot at wide receiver will be very interesting, with some surprise cuts likely on the horizon.
As for what the Pats ideally want at wide receiver in the draft, they’d love to add what they don’t have — an outside-the-numbers, big-bodied receiver.
One option they’ve considered, according to a team source, is going after Iowa State wide receiver Jayden Higgins in the second round. Higgins is 6-foot-4, 214 pounds, and ran a 4.47-second 40 — the kind of height/weight/speed profile the Patriots lack at the position.
A speedy RB in Round 3?
This is an odd draft class in terms of how good and deep it is at positions (like running back and defensive tackle) that aren’t seen as super valuable.
Still, given the depth, league sources expect the Patriots to pick players from both positions as early as Round 3.
At running back, the Patriots are looking for a speedy complement to Rhamondre Stevenson (who ran a 4.64-second 40 when he was a prospect).
Some mid-round options for the Pats who ran sub-4.45 40s include UCF’s RJ Harvey, Georgia’s Trevor Etienne, Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten, SMU’s Brashard Smith and Texas’ Jaydon Blue.
A run-stuffing DT
While the Pats like their interior pass rush with Christian Barmore and newly signed Milton Williams, they lack a run stuffer up the middle after trading Davon Godchaux. That’s why they’re expected to pursue that kind of player in the middle rounds.
Some options include Ohio State’s Ty Hamilton, UCLA’s Jay Toia, Florida’s Cam Jackson, Boston College’s Cam Horsley and Iowa’s Yahya Black.
Search for a kicker rolls on
The Patriots are looking for a kicker to add to a competition with John Parker Romo and are expected to either draft one or sign one shortly after the draft concludes. One name to keep an eye on: Arizona’s Tyler Loop, who worked for a year in college with Patriots special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer.
Finally, some predictions
• Campbell is the obvious pick at No. 4 to the Pats.
• They take Higgins, the wide receiver from Iowa State, in the second round.
• They then go back to the trenches for a guard and defensive lineman with their two picks in Round 3 (thus showing Vrabel’s fingerprints on the draft class with three guys in the trenches in the first four picks).
• They wait on a tight end until Day 3. Who knows what’s true this time of year, but I get the sense that the team doesn’t view tight end as a major need.
• Finally, thank you to you, the readers, for all the fun and banter in the comments in the pre-draft season and for reading. Even (maybe especially) when we don’t agree. It’s a fun stretch of the NFL calendar. Now, we’re on to a busy weekend before actual football practices begin next month (and our first 53-man roster projection on Monday). Enjoy the draft!
(Photo of Will Campbell: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)