WASHINGTON — With a little over a month until the postseason starts, the New York Yankees’ bullpen is the weakest part of their club. Figuring out the right mix could be the difference between a World Series title and getting bounced from the playoffs early.
The Yankees’ bullpen since the start of June has been below average. Entering Tuesday’s game, the Yankees’ bullpen ranked 21st in bullpen ERA since June 1. Out of all potential postseason clubs, only the Kansas City Royals produced less fWAR from their bullpen than the Yankees. New York has had a revolving door all season trying to find different arms to stick around, as it’s had to piece together its bullpen with scrap heap pickups. Some have worked. Some have not.
But Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake believes that if it can stay healthy over the last month of the regular season, this group can find success.
“I think we match up well with a lot of different lineups,” Blake said. “As you get to the postseason, the makeup of the bullpen changes a little bit. There are a lot of names still to be in the mix with us. That kind of will change the dynamic of how the bullpen is constructed. I think if we stay healthy, we have more than enough to be successful in the postseason, but we got to go out and do it.”
No one in the Yankees’ bullpen has more pressure on him to perform than closer Clay Holmes. Blake understands fans’ angst when Holmes enters the game in a save situation. His appearances come in naturally stressful and tense moments when he’s on the mound trying to preserve a Yankees win. But what Blake can’t get behind is the outside noise from people who believe the Yankees’ closer isn’t elite.
Holmes leads MLB with 10 blown saves, two more than the next-closest reliever. But some of those outings are not Holmes’ fault. Early in the season, Holmes gave up three unearned runs to the Arizona Diamondbacks after an error. Holmes was credited with a blown save in the final game before the All-Star break where Anthony Volpe bobbled a grounder and Alex Verdugo face-planted in left field. There are a couple of outings where he’s inherited runners. And then there are certainly a few where it’s been his fault with no one else to blame.
But blown saves can be a flawed stat. They need full context to be discussed.
“Looking at the big picture of how Clay has performed relative to other closers in the league, he’s up there with some of the best in terms of how he’s performed,” Blake said. “I know the blown save number is out there. … I think too much is made of it just because of how much spotlight is on us in general. His style of pitching in the ninth inning lends itself to some of those higher BABIP-type outcomes.
“I think he’s evolving in the role and adjusting to the league. I feel like he’s held his own. I know it’s noisy around us and him in general, but I think that’s all part of it.”
Blake is right, whether fans want to believe him or not. Holmes has the second-highest ground-ball rate in MLB among pitchers with at least 40 innings; only his teammate Tim Hill’s is higher. His 10.19 K/9 is higher than Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran, who throws over 100 mph, and Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who should get American League Cy Young Award votes this season. Holmes has adjusted his pitch usage this season, throwing fewer sinkers and more sliders and sweepers. He’s getting ahead in the count more than ever in his career. His walk rate is the lowest it’s been. He’s in the top 7th percentile in contact quality metrics.
Despite all of the metrics suggesting Holmes is dominant, he’s treated as if he’s a worse pitcher than Kei Igawa. Part of the reason for some of Holmes’ unfortunate outings is his .338 BABIP. In other words, opposing hitters have a .338 batting average on balls in play against Holmes. The league average BABIP is .290. Holmes is the test subject of a franchise’s willingness to trust the process rather than react to results.
“He’s been unlucky,” Blake said. “Part of who he is leads him to be unlucky. I do think it is challenging to stay process-oriented in a job like this, but that’s our job. We can’t always fall into the results of things because, both good and bad, you’re going to make bad decisions when you do stuff like that.”
The Yankees are sticking with Holmes as their conventional closer, but they have had conversations about whether using him earlier in games makes more sense as opposed to waiting until the ninth inning. An example of where the Yankees could deploy him before the ninth is if a team has three righties in a critical spot in the eighth inning as opposed to three lefties waiting for him in the ninth. In this scenario, the Yankees could use Tommy Kahnle, who specializes in neutralizing lefties with his changeup, in the ninth inning.
Regardless of when the Yankees choose to use Holmes, they’re clear with how they view him compared to other relievers.
“We feel good about how Clay is pitching,” Blake said. “It’s noisy, but he’s a successful closer in this league. I think it’s a little bit shortsighted to think otherwise.”
On the opposite end of the spectrum from Holmes is Mark Leiter Jr., who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline to bolster the back end of the Yankees’ bullpen. In 13 games, Leiter has allowed eight earned runs, 18 hits, six walks and four home runs over 11 1/3 innings. Opponents have a 1.049 OPS against Leiter. Put differently, every hitter he’s facing is performing similarly to Juan Soto.
The Yankees specifically targeted Leiter because of his swing-and-miss stuff. That hasn’t been an issue; he has 16 strikeouts. The problem is he’s getting barreled in nearly every outing.
“He’s just been hurt by some slug,” Blake said. “It’s still a small sample, but I do think it’s something we’re all keenly aware of that he’s given up more slug than he had up to this point.”
Without Leiter emerging yet as a go-to option in a challenging spot, Jake Cousins has entered Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s circle of trust. Cousins’ slider has a whopping 45.6 percent whiff rate. Opponents are hitting a paltry .133 against it. Earlier in the year, Cousins looked like nothing more than a bullpen arm who was organizational depth rather than a critical member of a team hoping to win a title. But as long as he keeps up the results down the stretch, Cousins is locked into the postseason roster.
There are still a few unsettled spots in the team’s bullpen, with Tim Mayza and Phil Bickford replaceable. Ian Hamilton should fill a spot when he’s done with his rehab assignment, which could be days away. Scott Effross and Lou Trivino, two pitchers who have yet to make their season debuts, are also rehabbing in the minors. Effross has allowed two runs in eight appearances this month and could soon be in the Bronx.
“I don’t know if there’s anything holding him back at this point,” Blake said of Effross. “I think he’s thrown the ball really well lately. Earlier on, we wanted to make sure he was in a good spot physically. The (velocity) is getting back to where it was. He’s been bouncing back from outings. He’s taken the ball on quick turnarounds, back-to-backs and two-ups. I think we’re getting to a spot where we’re pretty comfortable with what he’s doing and I would imagine he will be back up here shortly.”
The Yankees could also convert one of their starting pitchers, namely Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil, into relievers in the coming weeks. The plan is for both to return to the starting rotation when activated. If everyone stays healthy over the next few weeks, the club will have to start making decisions on who should be throttled back and be considered for the bullpen.
“I don’t think we have any plans with individual guys as much as we have more of a template of if a starter needs to become a reliever, when do we have to make that decision?” Blake said. “How do we do it? What does that look like? I think those are things that will sort themselves out early into mid-September.
“All these guys that have the ability to start will get the opportunity to build up as starters and then it’s just a matter of what’s the best makeup for our four or five starters going into the postseason? What’s the makeup of the bullpen look like? Who do we think fits better out there? How do they handle it? Then, it’s just taking the mix of 13 to 15 guys and we’ll see where we end up.”
The complexion of the Yankees’ bullpen could look much different in the coming weeks. If one or two effective arms emerge, the bullpen could be enough to carry the Yankees to championship No. 28.
(Photo of Clay Holmes: Rafael Suanes / USA Today)
