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Finally, the best NFL weekend of the year, at least until next weekend. Today’s quick wild-card preview includes key players, stats and matchups. LFG.
No, Tom Brady won’t be under center in these playoffs (probably), but that gif is the only one that conveys the joy, angst and excitement I feel when the NFL postseason first fills my weekend schedule.
As for Brady’s actual duties, he will be calling Sunday’s Eagles-Packers game, followed later by the 59th Super Bowl.
And as for us, let’s dive into your five-minute guide to wild-card weekend. (All times ET, all odds via BetMGM and you can try streaming games on Fubo for free. Of course, ticket prices may fluctuate after publishing.)
No. 5 Chargers (-3) at No. 4 Texans
- Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (CBS)
- Tickets from $82 via StubHub
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Chargers (85.5 percent)
How L.A. wins: Pressure QB C.J. Stroud. Houston has the league’s lowest success rate* on first and second down (40.5 percent), which leads to constantly throwing on third down (at a league-high 90 percent clip). Chargers DC Jesse Minter can blitz or use simulated pressures to throw Stroud off.
- Key stat: Houston’s third-down success rate declines by 45.6 percent when Stroud is pressured.
* A play is a “success” if the offense advances at least halfway to a conversion on first down, 70 percent on second or the entire distance on third.
How Houston wins: Extra possessions. The Texans rank fifth in turnovers forced, but face a conservative Chargers offense that turned the ball over just nine times this season (second-fewest). There’s hope — Jared Goff had thrown just two interceptions in nine weeks before the Texans intercepted him five (!) times in Week 10 — but Justin Herbert is built different:
- Key stat: Herbert just became the second QB in NFL history to finish with three or fewer interceptions on 500-plus pass attempts.
Justin Berl / Getty Images
No. 6 Steelers at No. 3 Ravens (-10)
- Saturday at 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
- Tickets from $84
- via StubHub
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Ravens (89.9 percent)
How Pittsburgh wins: Limit explosive plays. Stopping a motivated Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is never easy, but the Steelers got help from the injury gods, with Baltimore’s Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers set to miss this game due to a knee injury. It’s a huge loss, as the deep threat also offers explosiveness in the short passing game.
(The Steelers also welcome back four defensive starters, including CB Joey Porter Jr., injured early in their Week 16 loss to the Ravens.)
- Key stats: The Ravens are 1-5 this season when Jackson averages fewer than eight yards per pass attempt. Oh, and Baltimore has gone 2-8 in the last five years against Pittsburgh.
How Baltimore wins: Run the ball. The Ravens can win a shootout against the struggling Steelers offense, specially since Baltimore’s defense has made enormous strides — since Week 11, they are first in EPA per play against the pass. But with Jackson averaging 6.6 yards per rush and Henry averaging an even more impressive 5.9, they need their ground game.
- Key stats: The Ravens ran the ball just 19 times during their 18-16 loss to the Steelers in Week 11, their lowest mark of the season. And in last season’s 17-10 playoff loss to the Chiefs, the pre-Henry Ravens ran even less, just 16 times.
No. 7 Broncos at No. 2 Bills (-9)
- Sunday at 1 p.m. (CBS)
- Tickets from $99 via StubHub
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Bills (91.1 percent)
How Denver wins: Keep Josh Allen off the field. While reading Vic Tafur’s playoff picks against the spread, the following caught my eye: “The Broncos’ best chance to stay close is to work the clock offensively with screen plays and short passes … so that works out well for Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix.” Even if Payton calls a great game, they’ll probably also need to win the turnover battle.
- Key stat: Good luck. Buffalo led the NFL in turnover margin (plus-24!), partly by committing a league-low eight.
How Buffalo wins: Feed WR Khalil Shakir. As Ted Nguyen explains in his list of key AFC matchups to watch, Broncos corners Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss are tough to beat. But slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian, Denver’s weakest link, is tasked with stopping Shakir, who led the Bills in targets, receiving yards and receptions.
- Key stat: “The Broncos blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the league (37 percent). Shakir is Josh Allen’s favorite wide receiver against the blitz (28.3 percent target rate),” per Ted.
No. 7 Packers at No. 2 Eagles (-5)
- Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Tickets from $179 via StubHub👀
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Eagles (73.4 percent)
How Green Bay wins: The best playoff underdog needs WRs to step up. While QB Jordan Love is back to throwing — he injured his right elbow in Week 18 — he said there is still soreness. His arm is vital, especially without Green Bay’s most explosive receiver (Christian Watson tore his ACL that same game) and while facing a Vic Fangio defense that allowed the NFL’s second-fewest 16-plus-yard passes.
How Philadelphia wins: Jalen Hurts. In concussion protocol, he missed the last two games, and his status is still uncertain, though he was a full participant in yesterday’s practice. While they can win without him, Brooks Kubena’s update on Hurts explains why it’s difficult:
- Key stat: Without Hurts, the difference in their offensive EPA per play is equivalent to the drop-off from the Vikings’ offense to the Steelers’. 😬
Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images
No. 6 Commanders at No. 3 Buccaneers (-3)
- Sunday at 8 p.m. (NBC)
- Tickets from $94 via StubHub
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Commanders (52.9 percent) 🚨
How Washington wins: Turnovers. I don’t expect their defense — which ranks 24th in EPA per play and allows 23 points per game, the highest figure among all 14 playoff teams — to stop Tampa Bay consistently. They’ll need to take possessions from Baker Mayfield, who tied for the NFL lead with 16 interceptions.
- Key stat: Their offense can do the rest, as Jayden Daniels leads the league’s fifth-highest scoring attack (28.5 points per game)
How Tampa Bay wins: Feed RB Bucky Irving. This game should be a shootout, but a strong Bucs run game can rob Daniels of time to score against a depleted secondary. Mayfield will get his, but this team is 7-2 when Irving — who made Dane Brugler’s All-Rookie Team — sees at least 10 carries.
- Key stat: Irving also averaged 5.4 yards per carry, the third-highest mark in NFL history among qualifying rookies, behind only Adrian Peterson and Clinton Portis. Not bad.
No. 5 Vikings (-2.5) at No. 4 Rams
- Monday at 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
- Note: Game moved to Arizona due to the devastating L.A. fires. Jourdan Rodrigue shares how the Rams are adjusting. Stay safe.
- Scoop City readers’ pick: Vikings (59.3 percent)
How Minnesota wins: Limit Puka Nacua. “Since Week 8, Stafford has targeted Nacua on nearly 40 percent of his routes, the most of any receiver in that span,” as noted by Alec Lewis among his Vikings-Rams predictions.
- Key stat: In Nacua’s first full game this season, he torched the Vikings secondary, finishing with seven catches and 106 yards on nine targets. DC Brian Flores later admitted that they hadn’t expected it.
How L.A. wins: Pressure Sam Darnold. In an ugly Week 18 loss to Detroit, Darnold nearly went back to 2019, missing critical throws while under duress. The Rams pass rush, which includes the sensational rookie duo of edge Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske, could bring similar heat. Verse has generated 76 pressures this season, the most by a rookie since Nick Bosa in 2019.
- Key stats Minnesota’s replacement LT Cam Robinson has allowed eight sacks in 10 games, and gave up nine pressures against the Lions in Week 18.
For more prep, read Jeff Howe’s NFL insider playoff predictions, where coaches, execs pick wild-card round winners. Over to Dianna for a note on the latest GM firing:
What Dianna’s Hearing: Brady, Ben and a little bit of Belichick
Yesterday’s biggest development was the Raiders’ decision to fire general manager Tom Telesco after one season. On the “Scoop City” podcast, co-host Chase Daniel and I discussed Telesco, Tom Brady and what it means for Ben Johnson’s candidacy (and sure, Bill Belichick too).
This is what I’m hearing: This had nothing to do with Telesco as a GM. This has everything to do with what Brady wants to bring to Las Vegas. From what I gather, he really wants a head coach and a GM in tandem who know each other and speak the same language.
Somebody who we know wants to have a lot of power in the decision-making process: Johnson, who has agreed to interview with the Raiders — something I can tell you was not going to happen if Brady had not been involved with this organization.
🎧 The latest from the “Scoop City” podcast: Yes, Brady reached out to Belichick, but the conversation was about seeking broad advice on what the Raiders need. It was not about Belichick leaving the University of North Carolina to coach the Raiders.
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(Photo: Wagner Meier / Getty Images)
